[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 021715
SWODY2
SPC AC 021714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E
MQT 10 W GRB 45 NNW DBQ OLU BUB 40 NE ANW 30 NW INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW YUM 45 SW LAS
55 W MLF 50 WNW IDA 10 NE DLN 30 WNW 3HT 35 ENE MLS 40 NNE DIK 60 N
MOT ...CONT... 45 N BML 15 NW LCI 25 SSW EEN 30 WNW EWR 25 ENE BWI
35 ESE CHO 40 SSW RIC 25 ESE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DTW 25 SSW AZO 45 SW
RFD LWD 45 WSW HLC 45 ENE LVS 35 SSE 4CR 25 SSW GDP P07 45 E SJT 25
SSE FSI 35 E MLC 40 NNE UOX 35 SW CSV 25 WNW TRI 25 SE MGW 45 WSW
ERI DTW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...

...NRN PLAINS ACROSS NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN MS RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  MCS/CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF ND/MN
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS NRN MN AND WRN
ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY.  ACTUAL SCENARIO STILL HARD TO DETERMINE
ATTM...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH MORNING STORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EARLY ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP MORE SEWD THROUGH THE DAY AS
HEATING OVERCOMES CAP INTO NRN WI/SERN MN/WRN UP OF MI.  PRE-FRONTAL
AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH 40 KT OF WLY
MID LEVEL FLOW SUPPLYING AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINES/SUPERCELLS.
 PERHAPS A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER ASCENT AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
SPREAD SEWD INTO MN/WRN SD.  GIVEN COMBINATION OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE
UPPER TROUGHS...EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING FROM THE NRN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH COULD BE WIDESPREAD SHOULD ONE OR TWO BOW
ECHO SYSTEMS EVOLVE.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...DUE TO COMBINATION OF
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL VORT MAX
FORECAST BY BOTH NAM AND GFS TO SPREAD INTO CO.  AS STORMS SPREAD
EWD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEY WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT.  STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG NOSE OF
LLJ...ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH
ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM ELEVATED STORMS AFTER
DARK.  OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED ATTM...THOUGH POTENTIAL
STILL WARRANTS LOW PROBABILITIES.

..EVANS.. 08/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.