[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 020601
SWODY2
SPC AC 020600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
CMX 10 N AUW LSE 20 N ALO OLU BUB 40 NE ANW ATY 30 E INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E APN 15 NW GRR 25
NNW PIA 35 N SZL 10 E ICT TCC 45 NW HOB 25 ENE FST 50 W JCT AUS GGG
20 NNW PBF DYR HOP 20 SSE LOZ 25 SSW LYH 10 E ORF ...CONT... 10 WNW
YUM 50 W DRA U31 55 NNE WMC BOI MSO 60 NE FCA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NRN MANITOBA EWD INTO WRN
ONTARIO DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH
BRUSHING THE NRN PLAINS AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SEWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM NWRN WI SWWD
THROUGH CENTRAL NEB AND INTO NERN CO BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. 

...UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...
A CLUSTER OR TWO OF ELEVATED STORMS...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...
MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND WITHIN STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN MN/WI AREA. HOWEVER...WEAKENING LOW LEVEL
JET AND TIME OF DAY SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
NON-SEVERE. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE
DAY...WITH 30-35 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND VERY HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...95 TO 105F...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS WITH STRONG AND SOMETIMES DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE RELATIVELY WARM MID/HIGH LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND SIZE.  STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY
THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03-06Z
AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES FROM THE STRONG OUTFLOWS.

...NERN CO AREA...
LATE IN THE DAY...HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE AS NELY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDE LIFT
AND ADVECT HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WWD. EVEN WITH THE
INCREASE OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS...THE FORECAST OF DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 600 MB AND 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH BASED STORMS WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS.  THE MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK AS UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN SERN CO. SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED...SO ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IS
FORECAST ATTM.

..IMY.. 08/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.