[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 011721
SWODY2
SPC AC 011720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW
INL 45 WSW HIB 25 S AXN ATY 15 S REJ 70 SSE GDV 55 NNW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRP 45 S LRD
...CONT... 15 NW DRT 25 WSW TPL 35 NNE GGG 35 E LIT 35 NW HOP 10 NE
BWG 20 NW CSV TYS 55 E TRI 60 ESE LYH 35 SE ORF ...CONT... 20 SSE
NEL 25 SE BWI 30 WSW AOO 55 NNE CLE ...CONT... MTC 15 NE AZO 30 ESE
DBQ 35 WSW FOD 30 N OFK 35 WNW BUB 45 ENE AKO 20 E COS 35 WSW ALS 45
SSW GNT 35 SW DMN ...CONT... 40 SE YUM 45 WSW P38 55 ENE 4LW 55 NNW
BNO 40 NE CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE NRN PLAINS...

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE DAKOTAS FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SLIDE SSEWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS.  THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH INCREASE
CONVERGENCE...LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AXIS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN ND
SSWWD TO WRN SD.  AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT AND
FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS
STORMS BECOME ELEVATED AFTER DARK.

...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...
LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL REMAIN FOCUSED INTO THE NRN MS RIVER
VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG NOSE OF SWLY
LLJ.  CAPPING WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
THIS REGION.  IN ADDITION TO CAPPING...SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN DIFFUSE.  THUS...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...STRONG
HEATING AND ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL WEAKEN CAP...AND
LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME MAY SUFFICE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
LATE IN THE DAY.  SHOULD SURFACE-BASED STORMS FORM...SUFFICIENT
SHEAR /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT/ AND STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR AFTER DARK AS WSWLY LLJ INTENSIFIES ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  RESULTANT STORMS WILL
BE ELEVATED BUT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER
VALLEY AND SPREAD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.  MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS.  WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT...AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL FROM LATE
NIGHT STORMS...WILL OPT TO LEAVE AREA IN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
FOR NOW.

...NORTHEAST...
YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO PORTIONS OF NRN
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.  PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL REMAIN WLY...THOUGH
CONVERGENCE MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS INSTABILITY
FORECASTS.  STRONG WNWLY FLOW FROM H85 THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAY
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO.  HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE
MODERATE SBCAPE FROM THE NAM...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW.

..EVANS.. 08/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.