[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 010556
SWODY2
SPC AC 010555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE
ELO 20 WNW IWD 45 NNE EAU 40 WSW EAU RWF ATY 40 S Y22 50 NNW REJ 60
NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BHB 40 WNW 3B1
...CONT... 65 NNE MTC LAN RFD 25 SSE ALO 25 S FOD LNK HLC LAA TAD
SAF 40 W ELP ...CONT... 40 SE YUM LAS BAM PUW 70 ENE 63S ...CONT...
25 ENE CRP 40 WNW VCT MLU 20 WNW GLH MEM CKV 55 WSW LOZ GSO 40 WSW
HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND  UPPER MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM ALBERTA INTO MANITOBA
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH
BRUSHING THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN ND SWWD INTO NRN WY BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN MN/WI.

...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
SINCE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND VERY WARM AIR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BETWEEN 850-650 MB...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
BE INHIBITED MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MECHANISMS SHOULD AID CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NEWD INTO SRN MN. THIS VEERED JET MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST BY BOTH GFS/NAM...MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...AIR MASS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING JET
DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ELEVATED/HIGHER
 BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN WI.
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 KT COMBINED WITH 1500-2000 J/KG
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN
ND TUESDAY NIGHT AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET/UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SPREADS INTO THE AREA. THOUGH THE AIR MASS BETWEEN
850-650 MB SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM...ACCOMPANYING HEIGHT
FALLS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN VERTICAL
THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILES TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE STORMS FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-35 KT AND MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVIDE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. DRY
AIR ALOFT AND DEEP WLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY POSSIBLY
EVOLVE STORMS INTO A LINEAR MCS...WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ND
OVERNIGHT.

..IMY.. 08/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.