[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 291659
SWODY2
SPC AC 291658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW
DAB 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 25 SSE HUM 25 SE MEI BHM 45 SW TYS BLF 25
SSE EKN 25 ESE AOO 35 SSE IPT 10 SE AVP 15 SE POU 20 ENE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE VRB 15 S FMY
...CONT... 30 SSE LCH GWO BNA 20 NW LEX 50 E TOL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW 4OM 25 WSW YKM
BKE BPI 30 WSW LAR 45 SW IML RSL 50 ENE GAG 40 WNW PVW ABQ 60 SW CEZ
SGU NFL CEC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF
COASTAL REGION NWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO NJ/SRN NY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND THEN NEWD INTO THE NERN STATES...AROUND A
LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN ONTARIO. A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN AZ...SHOULD MOVE
RAPIDLY EWD IN STRONG SRN STREAM FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE NEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO UPSTATE NY
DURING THE DAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE
ERN QUARTER OF THE NATION.

...SERN STATES...
ONGOING BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
ERN TN/NWRN GA SWWD TO THE AL COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THESE STORMS MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S AND MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE LOW AND
STRONGER DYNAMICAL FORCING LIFTING NWD AWAY FROM THE AREA ...SUSPECT
STORMS MAY GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EWD DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS BAND/LINE OF STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC/ERN GA/FL PANHANDLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS HEATING AIDS IN STRONGER DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS.
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW AND THE EXPECTED LINEAR NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

NAM IS FASTER WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT ACROSS AL/GA AND
ALSO DEVELOPS STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN GFS. WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...EXPECT SWD PORTION OF FRONT
TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GFS...AND WITH SOME CLEARING AFTER
MORNING CONVECTION MOVES EWD...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS
POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT FROM NRN GA SWWD INTO SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH VEERED WIND PROFILES INDICATE HAIL
IS THE MOSTLY LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...NC NWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SRN NY...
STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY COMPENSATE FOR LESS BUOYANCY  THAN
AREAS TO THE SOUTH...WITH TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/FRONT FROM SRN PA INTO THE NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  LOW/MID
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. ALSO...STRONGER VEERING WIND PROFILES FROM ERN NC NWD INTO
DELMARVA SUGGESTS ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH
HEATING/INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
LIMITED FROM DELMARVA NEWD ACROSS NJ/SRN NY AREA... BUT IF A
THUNDERSTORM LINE DOES DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT...STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS MAY SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

..IMY.. 04/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.