[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 300540
SWODY2
SPC AC 300539

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 35 WSW YKM
55 SW PDT 30 SE OWY 30 SE MLD 45 S RWL 25 SSE LAR 10 E LIC 30 NW P28
15 NNW END 40 NE CSM 25 NNE TCC 15 N GUP 50 ENE DRA 40 NNE MER 30
SSW MHS 20 NNE EUG 45 NNW CLM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE MIA 20 WNW EYW
...CONT... 15 SSW CTY 45 NNW DAB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT ONTARIO UPPER VORTEX WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EWD ON SUNDAY
WITH AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM CONTINUING FROM CA TO THE SERN STATES. 
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO TIME.  BUT...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
TAKING THE H5 TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SERN STATES
EARLY SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING.  AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SERN STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY.  SRN PART OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SETTLE
SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND PERHAPS SRN FL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE
THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS NRN OR CNTRL FL ALONG/N OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. 
BOUNDARY LAYER S OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S TO 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS
ADVECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA.  GIVEN THAT THE H5 TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...TSTMS COULD
INTENSIFY/DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR OTHER BOUNDARIES.  THOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE FROM N-S ACROSS FL...WLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME MAY ENCOURAGE A FEW STORMS TO BOW GIVING
ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.  THE ISOLD SEVERE RISKS SHOULD MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES
DIVERGENT OWING TO DEVELOPMENT OF A CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO WAVE
CYCLONE TOWARD EVENING.

..RACY.. 04/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.