[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 290555
SWODY2
SPC AC 290555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
JAX 30 N PIE ...CONT... 30 W HUM 25 S MEI 15 SW TCL 35 W CHA 25 NE
CHA 55 ESE CHA 15 W AHN 35 ESE AND 25 E HKY 35 SSE PSK 25 SW SHD 30
W MRB 25 ESE AOO 25 N CXY 35 SW ABE 10 SSW DOV 40 SSW WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW VRB 20 SSW FMY
...CONT... 20 SSE BPT 25 E TUP 20 NE BNA 15 ESE LUK 50 SE DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW 4OM 25 WSW YKM
30 NNW BKE 35 NE SUN 40 SSW LND 30 SSW LAR 25 WSW IML 20 NW HLC 15
ESE GCK 40 SE TAD 55 S ALS 60 WSW FMN 30 SW SGU 45 WNW BIH 35 SSW
UKI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SWWD TO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A FAST FLOW REGIME ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW
WILL CARRY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLY FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE MID-OH VLY EARLY SATURDAY
TO QUEBEC BY EARLY SUNDAY.  A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE OH/TN VLYS EWD TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SATURDAY
NIGHT. WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NRN FL.  THE
FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCI FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE TSTMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

...MID-ATLANTIC/SERN STATES/NRN FL...
BANDS OF TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE OH VLY SWWD
TO THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG-SEVERE... PRIMARILY FROM
ERN TN SWWD THROUGH AL INTO SRN MS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.

GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD INTO MUCH OF THE SERN
STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.  ATOP THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR...
WSWLY H5 FLOW AOA 70 KTS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE DAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS OVER A BROAD SWATH OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/
BUOYANCY ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. STRONGEST
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST NEWD
INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH DECREASING BUOYANCY FARTHER N INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  UNCERTAINTY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL MESOSCALE EVOLUTIONS PRECLUDES
HIGHLIGHTING HIGHER PROBABILITIES WITHIN THE BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA
ATTM.

***SERN STATES***
TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE/INTENSIFY ALONG SERN EDGE OF MORNING
CONVECTION ACROSS GA...AL...WRN FL PNHDL AND MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE
COAST/NRN FL BY EVENING.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES.  BUT...THE SEVERE THREATS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING PASSES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

***MID-ATLANTIC REGION/CAROLINAS***
STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY COMPENSATE FOR LESS BUOYANCY
FARTHER N...WITH TSTMS APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
SRN PA INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS TORNADOES.  ERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE
MODULATED BY MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DELMARVA NWD.

..RACY.. 04/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.