[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 281752
SWODY2
SPC AC 281751

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W
LIT 50 WSW ARG 15 NNW DYR 40 SW CKV 40 NNW MSL CBM 30 ENE JAN 45 NNE
HEZ 30 WSW MLU 15 SW ELD 15 W LIT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
BPT 25 SE CLL 25 NE CLL 15 S PRX 30 WNW PGO 45 E TUL 15 WSW JLN 20
SSE TBN IND DAY CMH UNI HTS 40 SW HSS 25 ENE CSG PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 35 ESE AUS
30 N DAL 45 WSW MKO 35 WNW TUL PNC 45 NE GAG DDC HLC HSI LNK OTM MLI
CGX BEH AZO JXN DTW ERI BFD IPT ABE 35 SE NEL ...CONT... 50 E ECG
RWI RDU 20 ESE CLT 20 E AGS 35 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVE 35 NE RBL MHS MFR
EUG SLE PDX YKM ALW SUN BYI 60 NNW ENV EKO LOL SVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W RTN 40 SW COS 30
NNW COS LIC LAA DHT TCC LVS 25 W RTN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/ERN AR AND NRN LA EWD TO
WRN TN AND CENTRAL/NRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
FROM ERN TX/ERN OK TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...

...WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID MS AND LOWER TN
VALLEYS REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ONE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA/NV AND THE SECOND
APPROACHING THE NRN ROCKIES ATTM...ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER TN VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.  A BROAD
AND STRONG /70+ KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SRN
STREAM TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER OH/LOWER TN
VALLEYS BY 30/00Z.  GIVEN THE BREADTH OF THIS MID-LEVEL JET...50+ KT
WSWLY WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM SRN TX TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  12Z NAM IS SLOWER WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND FARTHER S WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUNS...AND MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC TIMING OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM.

A SURFACE LOW AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z NAM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL TX AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THIS LOW DEEPENING AS IT
TRACKS NEWD PER STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PHASING MID LEVEL
TROUGHS.  THIS LOW SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL AR BY 30/00Z AND INTO
CENTRAL OH BY 12Z SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NEWD
FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY...AND SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY.  NAM SUGGESTS A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/ SECONDARY
WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY FROM CENTRAL AR EWD ALONG THE SRN TN
BORDER.

...OZARKS TO ARKLATEX AND EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...

THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN OK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN MO/SWRN
AR AS A RESULT OF WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT SWLY LLJ.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION
ALONG THE NRN WARM FRONT.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
DEEP LAYER ASCENT/WAA AS THE LLJ TRANSLATES EWD TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID LEVEL JET.  ALTHOUGH
MODELS SUGGEST THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL JET WILL BE FROM NRN
TX TO THE OH VALLEY...A SRN STREAM JET APPEARS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEFINE THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FOR THE FORMATION OF THE
SECOND WARM FRONT.  THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND DRY
LINE TRAILING SSWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL AR BY 30/00Z
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE STORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
 THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE
TO RETURN NWD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. 
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING
WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500+ J/KG/ ACROSS
THE MODERATE RISK AREA.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /50-60 KT/ WILL BE
FAVORABLY ORIENTED FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA ALONG
AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.

THIS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY
THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT.

...OH VALLEY REGION...
12Z NAM SUGGESTS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER OH VALLEY INTO SRN IND/WRN KY PROMOTING AREAS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA.

...ERN TX...
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF ERN TX WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET
AND THUS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STRONG
SURFACE HEATING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAP BY MID-LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT HAIL
LIKELY GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES.

..PETERS.. 04/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.