[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 260454
SWODY2
SPC AC 260453

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDX YKM ALW MQM
RIW AIA OLU OMA UIN SLO MVN PAH DYR MEM PBF 40 N TXK MLC PNC 55 SSW
HLC PUB U17 P38 55 NW DRA 45 NNW NID 45 WSW FAT SFO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CTY 50 N DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL DOV ABE MSV PSF
ORH ACK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH PERIOD...AS ITS PRIMARY
CIRCULATION CENTER PIVOTS NNWWD TO NWWD ACROSS NWRN ONT.  SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY --
SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EWD TO TIDEWATER/MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM LM AREA SWWD ACROSS
OZARKS...SERN OK AND NW TX...SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE NC AND SEWD
ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BY 27/12Z.  LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
AND WARM FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS DURING DAY. 
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN 21Z SREF SOLUTIONS FOR TRACK OF
THIS LOW...MORE SO THAN STRONG AGREEMENT NOTED BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
26/00Z RUNS OF SPECTRAL/ETA.  EXPECT CYCLONE TO MOVE SEWD FROM ERN
CO/WRN KS ARE ACROSS SWRN KS/NRN OK BY 28/12Z...SFC WARM FRONT ENEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MO.

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
BAND OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER
PORTIONS CENTRAL OR SRN FL...AND ADJACENT ERN GULF WATERS.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER WITH TIME THROUGH LATE DAY-1
INTO EARLY DAY-2 PERIOD...REDUCING CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT AND MAKING PREFRONTAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ALMOST
UNIDIRECTIONAL.  LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION OFF ERN GULF MAY KEEP
AIR MASS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR TSTMS AMIDST WEAKENING LIFT. 
UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
SBCAPES BASED ON MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS.  A FEW
STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECREASING TRENDS IN
NEAR-SFC FORCING.

...LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS AREA TO SRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AFTER DARK...ON
BOTH SIDES OF SFC WARM FRONT.  50-60 KT LLJ SHOULD ADVECT
INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED RETURN FLOW AIR NNEWD FROM NWRN GULF TOWARD
THAT AREA.  ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY FORCE SOME PARCELS TO
LFC NEAR 700 MB LEVEL. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG
THROUGH DEEP LAYER STARTING AT SFC...EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ELEVATED
PARCELS MAY BE MUCH SMALLER.  THAT FACTOR PLUS SMALL ELEVATED
BUOYANCY INDICATES AGAINST ASSIGNING SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

FARTHER SW...DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND
W-CENTRAL TX ALONG INTERFACE BETWEEN DOWNSLOPE/WLYS AND GRADUALLY
MOISTENING TRAJECTORIES FROM S TX.  HOWEVER...PRIND ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AND LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP DRYLINE
CAPPED.

..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.