[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 251729
SWODY2
SPC AC 251728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 15
WSW PIE ...CONT... 20 NE GLS 10 NNW GLH 40 SSW MKL 35 NNE MSL RMG
ATL 40 SE MCN SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBI EYW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 10 SSE NIR 15 SSW
SHV 15 SE CGI IND 20 W CAK 15 WNW DUJ 25 SE AVP 10 ESE EWR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4OM GEG 27U 45 S CPR
LAR 40 N 4FC GJT DRO 55 S ALS DHT 55 E AMA CDS 40 NNW BGS CNM ALM
TCS SOW LAS RNO RBL 35 W MHS EUG PDX 65 ESE BLI 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES....

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE SWRN U.S.  STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL POLAR JET WILL EXTEND SSEWD
ALONG BACK SIDE OF ERN U.S. TROUGH HELPING TO ROTATE THE TROUGH EWD
TOWARDS THE NERN U.S. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.  SECOND STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER NERN LOWER MI SWD/SWWD
THROUGH ANOTHER WEAKER LOW OVER SRN IL...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EWD DURING
THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM ERN OH INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY
27/00Z...THEN FROM CENTRAL NY STATE AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND
THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL GULF STATES...

CURRENTLY...SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS AREA RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL MS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE LA COAST INTO SERN TX.  MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT 60 DEGREE DEW
POINTS WILL BE INTO CENTRAL MS BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THUS...THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPE
OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -4 AND -8.  ANALYSIS
OF POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5C/KM INDICATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME LARGE HAIL.  THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS AS 700-500 MB WINDS RANGE BETWEEN
45-60 KT SUPPORTING THE TRANSFER OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FOR DAMAGING
WINDS.

HAVE NOTICED IN THE MODEL DATA SOME FAVORABLE SPEED 0-3 KM SHEAR
ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MS...SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT/SQUALL LINE.

..MCCARTHY.. 04/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.