[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 261747
SWODY2
SPC AC 261746

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDX YKM ALW MQM
RIW AIA OLU OMA UIN SLO MVN PAH DYR MEM 15 SW PBF 40 N TXK 25 NNE
MLC 35 WNW END 25 N LBL 15 S PUB U17 P38 55 NW DRA 45 NNW NID 45 WSW
FAT SFO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CTY 50 N DAB
...CONT... 35 SE OAJ 20 SSE DCA 20 WSW ABE MSV PSF ORH ACK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
U.S. ON WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES WWD FROM
ONTARIO INTO MANITOBA. A TROUGH NOW LOCATED FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TO LOWER MS VALLEY IS PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.

IN THE WEST...HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS A TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CANADA CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NW...AND A LARGE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF THE
WEST COAST MOVES INLAND OVER CA.

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION SSWWD ALONG THE EAST COAST TO NRN FL AT
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
AND ALSO SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  VEERED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS FL WILL LIMIT
CONVERGENCE.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG/S
OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND/OR SRN FL.  DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S SHOULD
SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY.  A FEW STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WEAK
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND DECREASING TREND IN FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...SRN PLAINS TO OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY...
LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CO/SWRN KS AND WARM FRONTOGENESIS INTO THE
SRN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED AS WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS FROM
THE SWRN STATES TO THE SRN PLAINS.  MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL LEAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT EWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER CA. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS IS
EXPECTED TO AID IN THE ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
WARM INTO NRN OK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE RETURN PER SLY FLOW
ACROSS TX/OK EAST OF A DRY LINE WILL BE MODEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE BASED STORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL/NRN TX INTO SRN OK.  A GREATER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT AS THE SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS.
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INSTABILITY BASED AROUND 700 MB WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
MAY SUPPORT A FEW HAIL EVENTS...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE
HAIL IS LOW...AND THUS DOES NOT WARRANT HAIL PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..PETERS.. 04/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.