[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 241748
SWODY2
SPC AC 241747

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
PSX 35 NNW NIR 45 NNW SAT 10 ESE BWD 20 N FSI 35 SE END 25 ESE FSM
45 ENE LIT 25 SSW UOX 55 NW MEI 50 NNE MOB 10 ENE CEW 25 W PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50 SW SJT 25 NW
FST ELP 45 ENE TUS IGM 20 NE SGU 25 SSE U24 50 NW ENV 35 NE BNO ALW
20 SSW S80 35 SSW 27U 30 ESE IDA 30 SE BPI 15 NW CAG 4FC 40 WSW COS
25 SE RTN 40 WNW EHA 35 NE GLD 15 E GRI 30 SE SPW 50 SSE RST 30 NNE
MMO BMG 35 SW CKV 30 SSW HSV 30 S AUO 20 NW AQQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
/ SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD...WITH TIME BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN WLY
FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF NERN US/ SERN CANADA VORTEX.  BROAD BELT OF
MODERATELY-STRONG MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST...WHILE WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION
PERSISTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...MAIN QUESTION THIS PERIOD WILL BE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS / WRN GULF COAST REGION. LOW
INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD
ACROSS SRN OK / N TX...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL
TX THROUGH THE DAY.

...ERN HALF OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS IN QUESTION THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  ATTM...WINDS REMAIN NELY ACROSS THE GULF AS STRONG COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES SWD...WITH 60 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM NOW INTO THE
CENTRAL / SRN GULF -- WELL S OF BROWNSVILLE.

WITH TIME...FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN EWD AND THEN SEWD ACROSS THE WRN
GULF INTO TX...ALLOWING PARTIALLY-MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER TO SPREAD
NWD.  HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD
BE FUELING AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / THUNDERSTORMS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. THOUGH MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...CLEARING
/ HEATING SHOULD BE LIMITED BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY / AHEAD OF DRYLINE.
 

NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT HEATING / DESTABILIZATION
OF MOISTENING /50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
RESULT IN NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG / AHEAD OF DRYLINE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX...AND NWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL / ERN OK
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE ONGOING QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTENING /
DESTABILIZATION...MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS.  GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM ERN
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE DFW METROPLEX AND INTO NERN
TX...WHERE MOISTURE RETURN -- AND THUS INSTABILITY -- SHOULD BE
MAXIMIZED.  IN ADDITION TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING A
LARGE HAIL THREAT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY IN SRN PORTIONS OF
THREAT AREA WHERE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGEST
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS ANTICIPATED.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING /
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME GIVEN COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LESSER LOW-LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.

..GOSS.. 04/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.