[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 191731
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
SYR MPV PSM BDL ABE HGR 25 NW HTS ALN JEF 45 SSW OJC ICT RSL HLC GLD
AKO 50 W SNY BFF VTN YKN FOD ALO DBQ JVL MKG 55 NNE MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDS
CSM OKC FTW 30 NNW HDO DRT 25 NW SJT CDS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DOV CHO CSV 45
SSW BNA MSL 15 NE MEI 20 SE GPT ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 MAF DDC GCK 10
E LAA COS 10 ESE GUC BCE 50 SSE ELY OGD 20 N OWY BKE 3DU RAP 15 ESE
PIR HON FRM OSH APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VALLEYS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS....

BLOCK PERSISTS IN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND
MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CENTER OF THIS
FEATURE MAY SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES...AND AN AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES/GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES.

TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE...CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH MOVEMENT ONLY IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVES
ROTATING ITS CIRCULATION CENTER.  ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS PROGGED
TO MIGRATE AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW...ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  ANOTHER IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM...ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ...DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN A BROADENING SECTOR OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S...ASSOCIATED WITH GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RETREATING SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
OVER MUCH OF THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

...NORTHEAST INTO LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEY...
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING NORTHEASTERN TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO SURGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES/OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY.  BAND OR BANDS OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WHILE STRONGER CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO...STRONGER FLOW ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER
INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST.

LARGE  HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS IN MOST
VIGOROUS STORMS...WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST.  UPSTREAM...
IN DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHEASTERN UPPER
SYSTEMS...SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH SLOWER...AND WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING EXTENT OF CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY IN
THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND GREAT
BASIN LOW.  HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST NEAR
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONT VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER...AND BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS AS
FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF NEXT IMPULSE LATE WEDNESDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF FRONT...MODELS SUGGEST AIR
MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG.  THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. 
UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ALSO
APPEARS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
INHIBITION SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE...AT LEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS...ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT/ DIVERGENT
UPPER FLOW REGIME BETWEEN JET STREAK PROPAGATING AROUND GREAT BASIN
CLOSED LOW...AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET ALONG THE U.S./ MEXICAN BORDER.
 SHEAR LIKELY WILL NOT BE STRONG...BUT IT STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH CAPE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG BY PEAK
HEATING.

..KERR.. 04/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.