[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 190611
SWODY2
SPC AC 190609

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE
P07 15 WSW BGS 45 E LBB 15 NE GAG 20 N DDC 40 SSW GLD 45 ENE DEN 30
ENE CYS 15 S CDR 25 N MHN 30 WNW OMA 25 WSW BRL LAF 20 WSW MFD 15 SW
ZZV 20 ENE HTS JKL 50 ENE BWG 15 E PAH 45 ESE SGF 30 SE CNU 10 W TUL
25 NNE FTW 35 NW TPL 20 NNW SAT 10 N LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ORF 45 SE LYH
25 W AVL 15 SW CHA 25 N TCL 20 NNW LUL 20 SSE HUM ...CONT... 45 SW
P07 40 NW BGS 30 W GAG 30 SW DDC 10 E LAA 35 SW LIC MTJ 30 W 4HV 60
E ELY 30 NNE EKO 45 ENE BOI 20 E 27U 15 SW BIL 40 WNW REJ 15 ESE PIR
20 E SPW 40 WSW LNR 35 NE MKE OSC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WRN STATES WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG JET STREAK MOVING SEWD INTO THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA MOVING OVER CREST OF
UPPER RIDGE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN U.S. WITH
ATTENDANT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS PROCESS WILL HELP
DRIVE A COLD FRONT SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...NERN U.S. AND MID
ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY...WHILE WRN PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM CUTOFF LOW.

...CNTRL PLAINS...

NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ELY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
WILL PERSIST NEAR STALLED FRONT OVER NRN KS/SRN NEB...WITH UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ADVECTING WWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY FROM KS NWD INTO SRN NEB. PRESENCE OF CAP AND UPPER
RIDGE WITH ONLY WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST STORM INITIATION
MAY BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE STRONG JET
STREAK EJECTS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND N
OF THE FRONT FROM PARTS OF NERN CO...NRN KS INTO NEB. PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A WINDOW MAY ALSO EXIST FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO THE COOLER
AIR.

...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY...

THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR OVER THE MS VALLEY. MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
FARTHER EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY WHERE WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP SWD TOWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. FARTHER W OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...PRESENCE OF STRONGER
CAP MAY DELAY INITIATION UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST IN THIS AREA TO SUPPORT A THREAT
OF SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL MODE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS DURING THE
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.

...SRN PLAINS...

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE E OF DRYLINE FROM
PARTS OF TX NWD THROUGH OK AND KS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT MIXES EWD. HOWEVER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE
WLYS...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THIS AND
LIKELY PRESENCE OF CAP SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. 


...NERN U.S. THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN THIS AREA DUE TO WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRYER BOUNDARY LAYERS. HOWEVER...MODERATELY
STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ENHANCE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO LINES
ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 04/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.