[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 200638
SWODY2
SPC AC 200637

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT WED APR 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
P07 40 SW ABI 20 ESE LTS P28 25 NNW RSL 40 W EAR 35 SSW ANW 25 N ANW
20 S 9V9 25 W MHE 15 E MHE 35 W SPW 30 ESE FOD 20 WSW MLI 30 NNE CMI
IND 40 W LUK 20 SW LEX 55 NNW CSV 10 SE BNA 30 N MSL 20 S UOX 35 SSW
GLH 50 ESE SHV 55 ENE CLL 30 E SAT 50 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAV 50 NW AYS
25 ESE DHN 20 S CEW ...CONT... 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS 30 WSW LTS 20
NE GAG 30 NNW DDC 20 E GLD 30 ESE AKO 40 ENE FCL 40 N LAR 55 N DGW
25 SW REJ 30 WSW MBG ATY 25 N MCW 30 W RFD 20 SSW FWA 15 N PKB 25 NW
DCA 10 SSE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE PUW 50 SSW MSO
20 S 27U SUN 35 NNW OWY 80 E 4LW 65 NNW 4LW 50 NNW RDM 20 SSW YKM 45
SE EPH 30 NE PUW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG JET STREAK MOVING INTO BASE OF WRN U.S. UPPER LOW SHOULD
EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH NEB AND KS DURING THE DAY...THEN TURN SEWD TOWARD
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES OVER UPPER
RIDGE CREST. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST OVER NEB EARLY
THURSDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWD THROUGH WRN KS AND THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE SE INTO THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A COLD FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. THE DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM
OK SWD INTO TX...BUT OK PORTION WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE SEWD MOVING
COLD FRONT.


...ERN NEB...IA...KS...OK...MO AND KS...

ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND N OF
FRONT OVER PARTS OF NEB AND MO AS WELL AS SWD ALONG PORTION OF FRONT
IN NWRN KS. THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ABOVE LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS NEAR
TRIPLE POINT WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED IN DIVERGENT
JET EXIT REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD BUILD SWD ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
KS AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY INTENSIFY FARTHER
SE WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE MS
VALLEY. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE INITIAL
DOMINANT THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT
MOVES EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY...WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIMIT
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY PARAMETERS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN NEB
WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST JUST E OF
SURFACE LOW AND IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT.


...WRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH KY DURING THE DAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED S OF THIS
FRONT. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL EXIST AS
STORMS DEVELOP SWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY.

STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER W OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MAY CONSOLIDATE
INTO AN MCS OR TWO AND CONTINUE INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLER WITH ERN EXTENT INTO THE OH VALLEY. THESE
MAY SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...A SOMEWHAT REDUCED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS STORMS SPREAD INTO THIS REGION
OVERNIGHT.

...TX...

FORCING FOR INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FORECAST WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL
LIMIT DRYLINE CONVERGENCE. THIS AND EXPECTED CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EML LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. BEST CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE OVER N TX AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH NRN PORTION OF
THE DRYLINE. FARTHER S...WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN
STREAM IF FAVORABLY TIMED...COULD ENHANCE CHANCES FOR INITIATION. IF
STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR AT LEAST
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS.

...MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...

INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SWD
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY FROM PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
THE CAROLINAS.

..DIAL.. 04/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.