[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 180645
SWODY2
SPC AC 180644

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CDT MON APR 18 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW
HSI 30 SW MCK AKO 25 NW FCL 30 E RWL 15 E CPR 55 NW CDR 25 E PHP 25
WNW HON 20 NNW RWF 40 E MSP 30 W GRB 30 NW MKE 45 SW RFD 30 NNW BRL
15 NE LWD 25 ENE BIE 50 SSW HSI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
P07 45 S BGS 40 NNW CDS 30 ENE LBL 25 NE DDC 35 W HUT 25 WNW PNC 20
NE SPS 45 SSE BWD 20 S HDO 15 WNW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE OAJ 30 NNW SOP
30 WSW BLF 50 ESE LUK 40 ESE LAF 45 ENE UIN 15 SSE SZL 20 SE FYV 15
NE ELD 40 SW JAN 45 WNW GPT BVE ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 45 S LBB 20 E
AMA 30 ESE EHA 45 SSW GLD 30 SW DEN 30 NE U17 SGU 40 S TPH 55 S NFL
65 NW LOL 65 SE BNO 40 SW 27U 50 SE LVM 20 WSW SHR 15 NNW 81V 50 WNW
ABR 25 NE IWD 45 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 10 WSW BUF 15 SSE ELM 25 NNW TTN
30 SSE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUTOFF OVER THE WRN STATES TUESDAY...AND
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER SWD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT
NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF
MT. THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH
WRN NEB EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SWD THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM A LEE LOW OVER NERN CO...SWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MIX EWD
INTO WRN KS AND WRN TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...SERN WY THROUGH SRN SD AND NEB...

DEVELOPING ELY COMPONENT IN POST FRONTAL ZONE N OF SURFACE LOW
SHOULD MAINTAIN AXIS OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FROM PARTS OF SERN WY...EWD THROUGH SRN SD
AND NEB. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
ERN WY AND FARTHER EAST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. SSWLY UPPER FLOW
SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY CROSS INTO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. STRONGEST EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED FROM PARTS
OF ERN WY INTO WRN NEB WHERE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
INITIAL MAIN THREAT. ANY TORNADO THREAT IS CONDITIONAL UPON THE
DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER
WRN NEB AND SERN WY. THE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND STORMS
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN GREAT LAKES AREA...

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER KS WILL CONTINUE NEWD AND INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY. A CLUSTER OF MOSTLY ELEVATED
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WILL EXIST AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO HELP MAINTAIN A BRANCH OF THE SLY
LOW LEVEL JET NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES
WHERE ENHANCED LIFT IN VICINITY OF A SWD MOVING FRONT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODEST...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND.

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

GIVEN LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THREAT IS MORE
CONDITIONAL IN THIS AREA. SWLY FLOW IN THE 2-3 KM LAYER WILL
MAINTAIN PLUME OF WARM AIR ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL EXIST. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT MAY ALSO RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED CAP OVER
MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS E OF THE DRYLINE. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL ALSO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING WRN U.S. UPPER
LOW. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO DRYLINE MIXING
AND CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS ANY ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
A STRONG CAP AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT
BEST ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

..DIAL.. 04/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.