[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 171657
SWODY2
SPC AC 171656

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
INK 35 W LBB 40 NNE CAO 10 SE GLD 15 SW HLC 40 S RSL 35 WNW LTS 40
NNE SJT 60 SE MAF 30 E INK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MQT 20 SSW MTW
20 NNW MMO 10 E ALN 15 SSE TBN 25 W BVO 30 WNW OKC 30 E SPS 10 SE
TPL 10 NE NIR 20 WNW MFE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S MRF 35 NW INK 25
SW TCC 35 SSE LHX 35 ESE AKO 55 SE CYS 25 SSW LAR 20 N CAG 40 S VEL
25 ENE U24 35 SE EKO 60 NW WMC 60 N 4LW 25 W EAT 65 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CTB 45 WNW 3HT
20 NNW COD 30 E WRL 15 NW GCC 45 N REJ 60 N DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD AS HEIGHTS FALL
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THIS PERIOD.  SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NEWD FROM OFF BAJA INTO THE PLAINS...
BUT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF EACH WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE.  AT THE SURFACE...DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH WILL DIURNALLY
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.  A STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PAC NW TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE NRN
PLAINS...CNTRL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN REGIONS BY LATE MONDAY.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK WILL BE PARTIALLY MAINTAINED FROM PREVIOUS
FCST.

BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.

POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL EXIST...HOWEVER. 
FIRST...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LARGE SCALE H5 RIDGING IN WAKE OF A
DEPARTING IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CORN BELT MONDAY
MORNING.  H5 FLOW DOES BECOME SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AGAIN BY
EVENING...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH /NOW
OFF BAJA/...BUT TIMING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING IS IN QUESTION. 
MOREOVER...FARTHER S...THERE IS APT TO BE A CI/CS CLOUD CANOPY AS
THE SUB-TROPICAL JET BOWS NWD AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH. 
THUS...INSOLATION WILL BE IN QUESTION ACROSS SWRN TX. 
LASTLY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...LESS THAN
30 KTS...THOUGH MODELS MAY BE UNDERPLAYING MAGNITUDE OF FLOW TIED TO
THE LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...IT APPEARS THAT HEATING WILL BE A LARGE
DRIVING FACTOR TO POTENTIALLY INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
WRN KS TO THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF W TX.  DESPITE THE WEAK
FLOW...INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES MAY COMPENSATE AND...GIVEN A STORM...
LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THUS...A
CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK WILL BE PARTIALLY MAINTAINED.

...ERN PARTS OF CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VLY...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN NEB/KS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...ALONG THE NOSE OF H85 JET AND AHEAD OF H5 TROUGH. 
CLOUD DEBRIS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND UPPER MS VLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION REMAINS IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/I.E. PARCELS BEING FED FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY AXIS/ WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HAIL.  THUS...SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE.

...NRN PLAINS...
A STOUT CAP WILL LIKELY DELAY TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND THE FRONT BECOMES
STRONGER.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING POST-FRONTAL
EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD LARGE
HAIL...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE DAKS.

..RACY.. 04/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.