[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 170534
SWODY2
SPC AC 170533

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW
P07 25 ESE HOB 45 ENE CVS 20 N DHT 45 ESE LAA 25 WNW GCK 10 NE GCK
15 SSW DDC 30 WNW CSM 35 W SPS 30 N BWD 30 E JCT 60 W COT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MQT 20 SSW MTW
45 W MMO 10 NW UIN 35 ESE OJC 20 SSW PNC 20 S OKC 35 NNW DAL 20 SSE
ACT 45 ESE SAT 55 SSE LRD ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 35 S CNM 50 NNE ROW
45 SE RTN 50 NNW LAA 25 NW AKO CYS 45 NNW CAG 40 NE PUC 25 SSW DPG
45 SSW TWF 45 W SUN 35 ESE 27U 30 ESE LVM 30 SE MLS 40 S P24 80 NNW
GFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NWRN STATES THROUGH MONDAY...AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES S THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...THEN ADVANCE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WEAKER IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SRN STREAM MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD. THE
DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE
FLOW AND INFLUX OF CP AIR INTO MUCH OF THE NERN GULF. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL THEREFORE REMAIN LIMITED E OF DRYLINE WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. MAXIMUM MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM W TX THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. PORTIONS OF
THIS AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS AND PRESENCE OF CAP MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTORS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS KS WITH A FLATTER
HIGH FIELD AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSES FARTHER S INTO
TX. THEREFORE...INITIATION MAY BE MORE PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF W TX.
MOREOVER...A BAND OF STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN
STREAM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OVER
PARTS OF TX. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
WRN KS SWD INTO W TX AS IT MIXES EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...

PRESENCE OF STRONG CAP MAY LIMIT OR DELAY INITIATION IN THIS AREA
UNTIL EVENING WHEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY. MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY COULD BE ELEVATED IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION WHERE CAP
SHOULD BE WEAKER WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER LIFTING. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SEWD DURING THE EVENING.
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.


...ERN KS AND NEB THROUGH NRN MO AND IA...

ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND E OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH KS EARLY MONDAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF
INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER... CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY...AND ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED AS IT DEVELOPS EAST AWAY FROM THE EML. GIVEN EXPECTED WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY...ONLY LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 04/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.