[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 161702
SWODY2
SPC AC 161701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
HOB 30 ESE ROW 35 WSW ROW 50 SSE 4CR 45 N 4CR 20 N LVS 35 ENE RTN 35
NE CAO 25 NW AMA 35 W PVW 40 N HOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 20 ENE GNT
DRO 45 SW MTJ 15 N GJT 35 E CAG 40 ENE CYS 50 E CDR 20 SW PIR 45 WNW
HON 50 ENE ATY 45 NNE MSP GRB 25 NNE BEH 20 S FWA 10 ENE IND 20 NW
DNV 35 NE MLI 15 S ALO 55 SW FOD 25 W OMA 45 SSW P28 55 WSW ABI 35
ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BZN 20 SE MQM 35
SSE TWF 20 WNW EKO 75 NNW WMC 40 ESE BNO 20 SSE BKE 15 NNE S80 35 NW
MSO 45 NNE 3DU 25 W BZN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND PAC NW TROUGH DIGS
SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  AT THE SURFACE...WEAK FRONT THAT DROPPED
SEWD OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF AN IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE UPPER MS
VLY...WILL RETURN NWD ON SUNDAY.  LEE-TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INTENSIFY AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. BOTH THE WARM FRONT AND LEE-TROUGH
WILL BE THE FOCI FOR TSTMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...VIA
BOTH RETURN FLOW AND RECYCLED MOISTURE FROM NIGHTLY TSTM CLUSTERS. 
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...50-55F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE COMMON
ACROSS THE NM HIGH PLAINS BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES. ANY MORNING LOW-CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE...ALLOWING THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BOUNDARY LAYERS TO DESTABILIZE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE HIGHER NM MOUNTAINS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.  VENTING OF
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS COULD BE AIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE /NOW OVER NWRN
AZ/ EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON... CREATING AN
ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. 
MOREOVER...30-35 KT H5 WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ATOP
10-15 KTS OF SELY FLOW WILL AUGMENT THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.  STORMS WILL
PROBABLY GROW STRONGER ON THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE OK/TX PNHDLS LATER SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE LLJ DEVELOPS FROM NWRN TX TO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION INTO MAINLY A HIGH WIND
THREAT AS STORMS COALESCE INTO CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS
MAY EVOLVE FROM THE EXPECTED SRN HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING
AND DEVELOP/MOVE NEWD INTO WRN KS...CNTRL NEB AND SCNTRL SD BY 12Z
MONDAY.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

...UPPER MS VLY/MIDWEST...
A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/N OF THE H5 RIDGE AXIS AND
SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VLY SEWD TO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.  HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY.  ATTM...SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN
SUB-FIVE PERCENT GIVEN LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES...
AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREAD EWD ALONG/N OF A 55-60 KT CYCLONIC
JET...SPORADIC TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD EXIST ACROSS ERN
ORE AND WRN ID DURING SUNDAY EVENING.

..RACY.. 04/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.