[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 160451
SWODY2
SPC AC 160450

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
ALM 25 WNW 4CR 20 NW LVS 45 SE RTN 30 SE DHT PVW 20 NNW MAF 40 SSE
CNM 35 SE ALM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 30 SW ABQ
60 W PUB 50 E FCL 40 ENE CDR 30 SSE 9V9 30 S SUX 45 SE SLN 20 NNW
FSI 40 NNE SJT DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE OLF 50 WNW MLS
45 S BIL 20 W WEY 45 NE 27U 10 SSW 3DU 60 SSW CTB 40 NW CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MN THROUGH PARTS OF W
TX...

...CNTRL AND ERN NM THROUGH W TX AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...

SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX AND NM THROUGH SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN CA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH NM SUNDAY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CONTRIBUTING TO MAXIMUM MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
WHERE SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS. A 35 TO 40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS FROM ERN NM THROUGH W TX INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE UPSTREAM IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY
WITH NEW STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED BY A MODEST MID LEVEL JET
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOVE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE
STORM CLUSTERS AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM...W TX
AND WRN OK DURING THE EVENING...SUPPORTED BY AN INTENSIFYING SLY LOW
LEVEL JET.

...CNTRL PLAINS...

OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS...MAINLY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS WHERE DEEPER
MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK. HOWEVER...HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 04/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.