[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 041747
SWODY2
SPC AC 041746

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT MON APR 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
PRX 35 W MKO 25 SE PNC 20 SE P28 40 SE DDC 45 N DDC 15 W HLC 35 W
EAR 15 SSE BUB 10 SW YKN 25 SW OTG 20 S FRM 20 W ALO 30 SE BRL 10 SE
ALN MDH 30 SSW DYR 40 S GLH 50 WNW POE 40 W LFK 60 WSW TYR 25 WNW
PRX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HOU 40 S AUS
20 W TPL 20 NW DAL 40 E FSI 35 E CSM 55 SSW GAG 40 N AMA 10 SE CAO
TAD COS 25 E FCL 25 S CDR 45 NE RAP 45 SW BIS 60 NNE BIS 25 N DVL 75
NNW GFK ...CONT... 45 W ART 10 NE ROC 40 SE BUF 25 N BFD 10 SW ERI
35 WNW CLE 30 E LAF 20 S HUF EVV 15 NE CKV 30 NNW HSV 20 E MSL 15
SSW MEI 35 ESE 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
CNTRL U.S. FROM CNTRL/ERN KS/NEB/OK ACROSS A SMALL PART OF NERN TX
AND NRN LA TO THE MS RIVER...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE LWR CO RIVER
VLY...IS FCST TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
EAST FROM THE ROCKIES...LEE-SIDE CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER WRN
KS BY EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST AS AN OCCLUDED
LOW. INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH STRONG CAP ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NWD INTO THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THIS PROCESS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY
ACROSS TX/OK THIS MORNING WHERE LOW-MID 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS WERE
COMMON. MORNING MODELS ARE CONTINUING A TREND OF BEING SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THIS
SLOWER MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER SYSTEM/SFC LOW AND DRYLINE MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

...OK/KS TO NEB/IA...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MID 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS
NEB...AND STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING MAINTAINING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...EXPECT WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION TO FUEL INCREASINGLY
VIGOROUS TSTMS WITHIN LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE FROM CNTRL
KS TO NEB AND EAST TO IA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM AND
INCREASE NEAR LOW CENTER...ON THE KS/OK BORDER AREA...FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DUE TO SLACK MID LEVEL
FLOW NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND DEFORMATION AXIS...STRENGTH OF FORCING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH BACKGROUND VORTICITY NEAR LOW
CENTER...COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER ARC
OF CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...ERN OK/SERN KS ACROSS OZARKS TO MS VLY...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE OVER ECNTRL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ORIENTATION OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO THE LOW LEVEL FORCING WOULD SUGGEST
INITIAL STORMS MAY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY HIGH LFC TO COUNTER TORNADO POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL  AS WELL AS
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO
THE BACK OF THE DRYLINE WOULD FURTHER SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION INTO A
SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EAST TO THE MS RIVER
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

..CARBIN.. 04/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.