[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 030555
SWODY2
SPC AC 030554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST SAT APR 02 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 60 SSE DLH
15 SSE MSP 10 E OTG 25 SW YKN 30 N EAR 30 NNW DDC 35 N AMA 15 SE TCC
30 SW GNT 20 NW IGM 40 E BIH 30 SW NFL 75 SE 4LW 60 N BOI 35 N HVR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ERN PACIFIC MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX WILL DIG ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE H5 FLOW WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR DEEP CONVECTION
IS THE EXPECTED SLOW MODIFICATION OF MARITIME AIR MASS OVER THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.  THIS PROCESS WILL NOT PROVE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG STORMS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY
LINE/COLD FRONT FROM NEB...SOUTH.

HOWEVER...FARTHER NORTH...MID LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS THE CNTRL
ROCKIES AND A SWLY DEEP LAYER TRAJECTORY WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO POSSIBLY MN LATE IN THE PERIOD. 
IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS THIS REGION A NARROW ZONE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY PROVE
ADEQUATE FOR A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS SD INTO
SCNTRL ND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR EWD DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..DARROW.. 04/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.