[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 021707
SWODY2
SPC AC 021706

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 W FAR
ABR 25 N PIR 81V WRL BPI SLC U31 RBL 35 SSW EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSM 30 NNW PWM BGR
EPM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NERN UNITED STATES WILL BE EJECTED NEWD
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DROPS SEWD INTO THE WRN
U.S  ALTHOUGH THE WRN U.S TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE LEESIDE TROUGH
AND SLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD. DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CONUS...CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ME
COAST AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE REST OF
THE COUNTRY SHOULD BE TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR CONVECTION.

...ME...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS THAN 50 J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW...WITH NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
ABOVE A COOL AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COASTLINE...WHERE THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS
WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY.

...PACIFIC NW...
SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN INSTABILITY WOULD BE MAXIMIZED. 

...NRN PLAINS..
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A CAPPING INVERSION
BETWEEN 750-850 MB. HOWEVER...WITH LAPSE RATES FORECAST TO BE NEAR
8.0C/KM ABOVE THE CAP...A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT FROM ERN MT
EWD ACROSS ND AND NRN SD.

..IMY.. 04/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.