[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 271545
SWODY2
SPC AC 271544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE
FLO SOP RDU WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW FHU GBN DAG
NID 40 SW TVL 50 W RNO 20 NNW RNO 65 ENE TPH MLF U28 45 SE VEL RKS
BPI PIH 40 SSW MHS 25 NE ACV 45 SE OTH DLS 50 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 50
N FCA 50 E HLN 50 NNE BIL OLF 35 NNE ISN MOT BIS MBG MHN LBF SLN EMP
40 ENE BVO MLC DAL 25 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CTY AYS AGS
AHN 50 WNW AND AVL 25 SSW JFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN SC...ERN NC...SERN VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
ON SYNOPTIC SCALE...JUMBLED UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH DAY-2 WITH SEVERAL WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES OVER
S-CENTRAL/WRN CONUS...POSITIVELY TILTED NRN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING
GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND EJECTING REMAINS OF TC JEANNE.  LATTER
WILL BE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THIS OUTLOOK...AS IT DEAMPLIFIES AND
ACCELERATES NEWD...MOVING OFFSHORE NC/VA DURING MIDDLE-LATTER PART
OF PERIOD.  LOW LEVEL REMAINS OF JEANNE ARE FCST TO LINK WITH NRN
STREAM COLD FRONT OVER PIEDMONT OF CAROLINAS BY BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...BEFORE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC/TIDEWATER REGIONS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES TROUGH.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
EXIT-PHASE SUPERCELL/TORNADO EPISODE MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD AS REMAINS OF JEANNE APCH ATLANTIC COAST.  BASED ON LATEST
NHC FCST POSITION OF CENTER...VERY MOIST AND AT LEAST WEAKLY BUOYANT
PREFRONTAL AIR MASS...AND ASSOCIATED POSITIONING OF FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES NE-SE OF CENTER...THREAT SHOULD SHIFT NEWD FROM ERN NC
ACROSS SERN VA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 00Z.  TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE THROUGH MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS INSOLATION
MAXIMIZES SBCAPE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG IN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE
AREAS...THEN WEAKEN DRASTICALLY THEREAFTER AS SYSTEM EXITS REGION. 
DESPITE DIMINISHING NATURE OF AMBIENT KINEMATIC FIELDS...NET SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE AS SFC FLOW WEAKENS FASTER THAN LOW-MIDLEVEL
WINDS. THIS IS NOT WELL-DEPICTED BY ETA...WHICH ALSO FAILS TO
ISALLOBARICALLY FORCE BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF REMNANT
LOW.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST 0-1 KM
SRH 250-400 J/KG E OF LOW.

...S-CENTRAL/WRN CONUS...
SLOW-MOVING MID-UPPER TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER SRN NM AND FAR W TX -- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD TO RED
RIVER REGION AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE FOR ANOTHER
DAY TO CONVECTION THAT SHOULD REMAIN NONSEVERE BECAUSE OF SMALL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR.  COMPACT BUT WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN MT AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
TO ITS S OVER WY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF REMAINDER OF WRN CONUS AS WELL...ASSOCIATED
WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WEAK
LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION PROVIDED BY SEVERAL OTHER MIDLEVEL
PERTURBATIONS.

..EDWARDS.. 09/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.