[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 261725
SWODY2
SPC AC 261724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE
MLB 25 S CTY 20 SE MGR 45 ENE MCN 30 ENE CLT 55 E DAN 25 NE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE AQQ 10 SSW CSG
20 WSW GSP 25 NE CHO 30 ESE DOV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E DUG 30 E SAD 40
N SAD 30 NE SOW 15 SW GUP 10 SW FMN 25 ESE MTJ 45 SW CAG 50 ESE EVW
40 SW TWF 75 NW OWY 45 NNE BNO 35 NNW BKE 15 NW S80 40 WSW 3DU 30 S
SHR 40 WNW CDR 20 NW VTN 15 WNW FSD 60 NNE EAU 50 NNW GRB 10 WSW MTW
25 WSW OTM CNK 35 W P28 15 ENE SEP 25 ENE CRP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES SEWD
FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. INCREASING SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW REMNANT JEANNE CIRCULATION TO
ACCELERATE NEWD ALONG THE SERN U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE TO THE SW...
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
WHILE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW GRADUALLY MOVES ONTO THE CNTRL CA COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL
PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY BE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO LOWER
MO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF FRONT. RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...SERN ATLANTIC COAST...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
MOVEMENT OF JEANNE CIRCULATION WITH THE OPERATIONAL ETA AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS BEING SLOWER TO MOVE SYSTEM NEWD
THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. 

AHEAD OF THIS LOW...EXPECT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ TO MOVE ONTO THE GA/CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN...TO THE E OF SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY NEAR THE TRANSITION TO PIEDMONT REGION. DESPITE NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH DIABATIC
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 500 TO LOCALLY 1000-1500 J/KG.
RADIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME OWING TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS...HOWEVER THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY INCREASE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS. MOREOVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG
AHEAD OF LOW NWD OR NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH 0-1KM SRH OF
150-250 M2/S2.

CLUSTERS OR BANDS OF MINI SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM JUST NE OF THE SURFACE LOW NEWD
ACROSS WEAKLY-CAPPED WARM SECTOR OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST AS THESE STORMS CROSS ZONE
OF ENHANCE NEAR-GROUND SHEAR INVOF ANTICIPATED SURFACE BOUNDARY.

A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ON SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS MAY
BE CONSIDERED ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA.

..MEAD.. 09/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.