[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 280711
SWODY2
SPC AC 280710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 25 S PHX
45 NW IGM 40 NW NID 15 E FAT 25 NNE RBL 25 WSW LMT 10 E RDM 15 ENE
ALW 10 WSW S06 45 NNE 3DU 20 S BIL 20 NNE GCC 40 SSW REJ 35 NW MBG
50 NNW TVF 45 WSW INL 30 NNE STC 10 SE OTG 25 SE BUB 55 SW HLC 45
ENE DHT 15 SW LBB 10 E MAF 40 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW PNS 55 SW SEM
0A8 15 ENE BHM 30 NW ATL 45 WNW AGS 25 ENE SAV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS FORMING OVER CA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE EWD
TO THE SRN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS
LOW...PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT OVER THE RIM WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MOISTENING AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO NM.  THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 500
J/KG/...35-50 KT SWLY FLOW IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL
SELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SE AZ EWD INTO SW NM.  THE MOST PERSISTENT/INTENSE STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW
GUSTS.

OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL COLD
POOL...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  FARTHER NE...ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/NW MN IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT EWD FROM MT BY TOMORROW.  HOWEVER...STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN AND AT BEST
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  LASTLY...A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO FORM
ACROSS THE AL AREA ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE TRAILING THE
REMNANTS OF JEANNE...AND IN ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS AL/GA AS THE L0W LEVELS DESTABILIZE...THOUGH THE ETA
APPEARS TO BE OVER-ESTIMATING INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT
OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME IN THE MODEL.

..THOMPSON.. 09/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.