[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 221725
SWODY2
SPC AC 221720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
DLH 30 E MSP 20 N MKT 45 SSE AXN 40 WSW AXN 25 E RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW LRD 25 NE CRP
15 NE PSX 30 SSE CLL 50 ENE ACT FTW 55 WNW MWL 30 NNE ABI 20 SSW SJT
30 SE DRT 55 NW LRD ...CONT... 45 W MRF 30 SE HOB 15 NE LBB 45 NNE
CDS 30 NW END 20 WNW EMP 20 NNE BIE 25 W BBW 45 SSE PHP 55 NE MBG 65
N DVL ...CONT... 95 N CMX 40 S CMX 30 SSW RFD 45 S UIN 45 W UNO 40
NNW HOT 25 W ELD 40 NNE ESF 40 SSW LUL 25 SSW MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 30 S PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE GTF 30 NE SHR
50 NNW DGW 25 SW LAR 45 WSW CAG 45 N VEL 10 W MLD 30 WNW TWF 45 NNW
BOI 10 WSW LWS 25 NNE 3TH 40 ESE FCA 40 ESE GTF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN MN
AND FAR NWRN WI...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WRN CO...IS PROGGED TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1 AND INTENSIFY ON
THURSDAY AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  BAND OF 60-80
KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO MN
WITH FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION SUPPORTING INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INTO CENTRAL/NRN MN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH /150-180 METERS/...ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NNEWD INTO WRN/NWRN MN BY
24/00Z.  COLD FRONT...INITIALLY TRAILING SWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW
INTO ERN NEB/KS...WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD REACHING NORTH CENTRAL MN
TO ERN IA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL/NRN MN AND FAR NWRN WI...
DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GIVEN MERIDIONAL TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW...A NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HEATING /AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S/ WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500 TO 900 J/KG.
STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT...ALTHOUGH CONFINED TO THE FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM WRN MN TO NRN IA...AND
THEN MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN MN AND POTENTIALLY FAR NWRN
WI.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL WINDS AND COMBINED
WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND INCREASING SLY LLJ AT 35-45 KT...
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  HOWEVER...BACKED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...ERN IA/NERN MO...
ALTHOUGH STRONGER UPPER FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THIS AREA...MODELS
SUGGEST THERE SHOULD BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EWD INTO ERN IA/NERN MO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

..PETERS.. 09/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.