[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 220731
SWODY2
SPC AC 220726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E PSX 40 SSE CLL
25 WNW LFK 50 SSE SHV 25 WNW BTR 30 N BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNE CMX 25 SW RHI
25 S LSE 20 ENE DSM 15 N BIE 20 W BBW 40 SSE PHP 35 NE MBG 70 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW TWF 60 SE BKE
LWS 30 ESE 3TH 40 W LWT 30 N SHR 25 NNW DGW 20 SW LAR 40 W CAG 45 E
EVW 20 WNW MLD 35 NW TWF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW DMN 30 S TCS
30 SE 4CR 25 SE CVS 45 W CDS 25 ENE CSM 10 SSE PNC 35 WSW JLN 30 W
FSM 20 SSW ADM 30 NNE ABI 20 S SJT 35 SE DRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE GRT BASIN EXPECTED TO EJECT NE ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE PLNS...THE UPR MS VLY AND THE UPR GRT LKS ON THURSDAY AS
WLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. 
ELSEWHERE...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
ELONGATE NE/SW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING TROUGH SHOULD BE NEAR
FSD AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  THE LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE RAPIDLY
NNEWD DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NE
ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GRT LKS.  THE SRN PART OF SAME BOUNDARY
WILL WEAKEN UPON MOVING SE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY.

...SE NM/SW TX...
WEAK LOW LEVEL E/NELY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD SE NM/SW TX ON THURSDAY
IN WAKE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS.  THIS
WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT /DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S/ OVER THE REGION BENEATH WEAK /15-20 KT/
WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW.  SURFACE HEATING AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...COUPLED WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 9 C
...SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY YIELD HAIL AND POSSIBLY
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AS MLCAPE RISES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  BUT WEAK
DEEP SHEAR AND MEAGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED...SHORT LIVED AND STRONGLY
DIURNAL.

...UPR MS VLY...
A BAND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NRN HALF OF IA AND MN.  LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUPPLY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH LARGELY MERIDIONAL LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST
THAT UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN WEAK DESPITE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT.  CONSEQUENTLY...POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY
APPEARS SLIM.  NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF MEAN WIND /45-50
KTS/...A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
...ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR THAN IS
NOW ANTICIPATED.

..CORFIDI.. 09/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.