[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 211614
SWODY2
SPC AC 211610

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E DUG 35 SE ONM 35
ENE LVS 45 WSW RTN 10 NW FMN 15 NW 4BL 35 S VEL 25 ESE RKS 50 SSW
DGW 55 WSW CDR 25 NE CDR 30 NW 9V9 35 ESE ABR 45 ENE FAR 45 W INL
...CONT... 25 NNE ELO 35 SE MSP 35 SSW FOD 40 N FNB 25 NNE EMP 15
ESE PNC 35 SW OKC 10 E SPS 55 WNW MWL 35 NNE SJT 25 WSW JCT 40 ESE
SAT 30 N GLS CEW 25 S TLH ...CONT... 45 N PIE VRB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL LIFT ENEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM WLY FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TWO LARGE AREAS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
OHIO VALLEY RESPECTIVELY.  BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A NARROW ZONE
OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED LIFT WILL PROMOTE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG
THE FRONT ZONE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
ACROSS THIS REGION. FARTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SWD/SEWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM SERN
KS...ACROSS NWRN OK...AND INTO SRN NM BY EARLY THURSDAY.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SITUATION WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
ACROSS NERN NM AND THE PNHDLS INTERSECTING LEE/THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN NM. INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN
SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG LEE TROUGH
OVER CNTRL AND ERN NM. WITH UPPER TROUGH EJECTING N OF
REGION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE
SRN PLNS. HOWEVER...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD
BOOST MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH MODERATE MID LEVEL
WSWLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CELLS WITH A
CHANCE FOR WIND/HAIL. GIVEN RELATIVELY MODEST SHEAR...WEAK LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...
ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

...KS/NEB/WRN IA...
STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER
PARTS OF KS/NEB AS EJECTING UPPER TROUGH ACTS TO ENHANCE ASCENT
ALONG THE S-N ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE. LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY
WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR RESULT IN LOW INSTABILITY ON
THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG MUCAPE. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK
OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THUS LIMITING
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO MARGINAL HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 09/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.