[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 210742
SWODY2
SPC AC 210737

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
CNM 30 E ALM 35 N 4CR 35 W CAO 25 ENE CAO 30 WNW AMA 55 W LBB 30 S
CNM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 30 SSE VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ANJ 40 NE RST 25
NNE STJ 35 SSW P28 40 N CDS 50 SSE LBB 45 SSE BGS 25 S JCT 40 ENE
SAT 35 SW PSX ...CONT... 40 SSW DMN 35 WNW TCS 20 W ABQ DRO 30 W 4BL
30 SW PUC 15 ESE OGD 50 SSW JAC 50 ENE JAC 35 ENE WRL 25 NW DGW 25
NE FCL 35 SE SNY 40 NE VTN 40 SSW JMS 30 E RRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE SRN HI
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GRT BASIN EXPECTED TO EJECT NE
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS/HI PLNS ON WEDNESDAY AS
WLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NE PACIFIC/WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NW.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE RELATIVE TO THE ETA/GFS.

AT THE SURFACE...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG ANTICYCLONES
CENTERED OVER THE GRT BASIN AND OH VLY.  BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...
SRN PART OF FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN PLNS WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD LATER IN THE PERIOD AS
EJECTING SYSTEM INDUCES DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IN
NEB/SD.

...SRN HI PLNS...
SETUP SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER CNTRL AND ERN NM. 
WITH MAJOR PORTION OF EJECTING TROUGH REMAINING WELL N OF
REGION...EXPECT THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK
OVER THE SRN PLNS.  IN ADDITION...PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT LARGE SCALE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.      NEVERTHELESS...A MODEST AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S/ SHOULD
REMAIN PRESENT OVER ERN NM AND WRN/SWRN TX GIVEN WEAK SELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON SWRN FLANK OF RIDGE.

UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT AFTERNOON
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL/ERN NM...AND
PERHAPS ALONG COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH IN PARTS OF W TX.  MODERATE /30
KT/ MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED
CELLS AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN
THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL.  THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD... HOWEVER...REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED IN INTENSITY/DURATION GIVEN RELATIVELY MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.

...LWR MO VLY...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND/OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD OVER PARTS OF NEB/SD AS WARM ADVECTION/DPVA INCREASE
DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY ELEVATED.  GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE SUPPLY IN WARM SECTOR AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY
BE TOO LIMITED TO POSE A THREAT FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE.

..CORFIDI.. 09/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.