[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 201701
SWODY2
SPC AC 201657

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
CNM 25 WSW CNM 40 SE 4CR 55 NNW TCC 10 WSW CAO 25 SSW EHA 20 NNE AMA
35 WSW LBB 30 SE CNM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE 15 SE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 35 WNW TCS
20 W ABQ 20 N FMN 20 SW U17 35 E MLF 20 NW U24 25 WNW MLD 15 WNW JAC
35 WNW RIW 35 S RWL 30 NE DEN 35 SE SNY 35 SSW ANW 40 NNW ATY 30 E
RRT ...CONT... 30 SSE CMX 35 NE DSM 10 SSE FNB 45 WNW END 10 NNW CDS
40 S MAF 30 ESE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NM AND PARTS OF THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE
A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST...AND A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE WEST AND THE ROCKIES. A
STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE
FEATURES...FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY S/SWWD INTO THE CNTRL
AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE NORTH
WILL PROMOTE FRONTAL PASSAGE EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...WHILE PLAINS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
QUASISTATIONARY FROM NEB INTO WRN KS. COLDER AIR SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT RANGE...COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIABATIC
PROCESSES...WILL RESULT IN THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS FROM LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...ERN NM TO THE PNHDLS AND WRN KS...
ZONE OF MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THIS REGION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BULK OF THE REGION
REMAINS SOUTH OF MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WRN UPPER TROUGH...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT NEAR
LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING SEWD
ACROSS ERN CO SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION. ACROSS THE
NRN PORTIONS OF THE SLGT RISK AREA...20-30KT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER TO SWLY IN THE MID LEVELS PRODUCING ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE...AND A CHANCE FOR
HAIL/WIND ALONG A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NERN NM INTO SWRN
KS. FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS SERN NM...VERY WARM AND WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DESPITE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION.

..CARBIN.. 09/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.