[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 200728
SWODY2
SPC AC 200724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW
INK 30 NW GDP 30 S 4CR 40 WNW TCC 30 ENE DHT 20 NNE AMA 45 SW LBB 40
WSW INK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE 15 SE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 140 ENE APN 15 W PLN
30 W GRB 10 S ALO TOP 25 S PNC 50 SW SPS 50 SSE MAF 30 ESE P07
...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 65 NNW SVC 35 NE GNT 45 SSW GUC 35 NE U28 40
WNW 4HV 20 WSW DPG 20 E MLD 35 SSW BZN 45 SW BIL 40 NNE RWL 15 NE
FCL 20 SSW GLD 15 E BUB 25 NW ATY 10 E INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A SMALL PART OF THE SRN HI
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING NNE ACROSS THE RCKYS WILL CONTINUE NE
ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY...LEAVING BEHIND REMAINING PORTION OF
EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE GRT BASIN.  THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL ITSELF
BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD LATER TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WLY FLOW ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC AND WRN CANADA.  IN THE
MEANTIME...STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY E OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE NRN PLNS AND UPR MS
VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD REACH A NE MN/NW IA/NW KS/SE CO LINE
BY 12Z TUESDAY.  THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DROP S ACROSS
THE HI PLNS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM SE NM
INTO NW OK BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. DOMINANT ERN RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT MORE SLOWLY-MOVING.  IN FACT...THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CNTRL KS THROUGH CNTRL IA 
AND CNTRL WI INTO NRN MI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

...SRN HI PLNS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED SE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
SRN/CNTRL PLNS ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST.  COUPLED WITH POSITIVE
TILT OF GRT BASIN TROUGH...EXPECT THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL...NEVERTHELESS...LIKELY FORM
ALONG AND PERHAPS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS IT SETTLES S ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
NM AND W TX DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IN THIS REGION...THE COMBINED
EFFECTS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN AND LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TO BREAK WEAK CAP.

GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE /25-30 KT/ SWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SUSTAINED AND/OR
ORGANIZED INTO SMALL CLUSTERS. A THREAT MAY DEVELOP FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL FROM A FEW CELLS AS HEATING BOOSTS
MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  BUT ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED AS MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...AND CONTINUED SWD MOTION OF FRONT UNDERCUTS
UPDRAFTS.

..CORFIDI.. 09/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.