[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 191820
SWODY2
SPC AC 191813

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
9V9 30 SSW ATY 40 N SUX 40 ESE GRI 40 N RSL 55 N GCK 15 SSW GLD 25
WNW IML 15 SSE 9V9.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM 50 SSW PRC
45 NE INW 40 ESE U17 55 WNW 4HV 50 W MLF 35 E U31 90 N WMC 20 NNE
BNO 30 SSE PDT 60 NE 63S ...CONT... 25 NNW ANJ 40 N ALO 50 NE FNB 15
NNW GAG 40 N MAF 30 SSW P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW CTY 25 NNE JAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE WRN U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD THIS
PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS ND / MN IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...LITTLE CHANGE IN HEIGHTS
IS FORECAST FURTHER S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ND SSWWD
INTO NERN CO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.  WITH TIME...NRN
PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF
MORE PROGRESSIVE PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH.  BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER
LAKES SWWD INTO NWRN KS / ERN CO.

...THE PLAINS...
STRONGER DYNAMICS / FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS / CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH TIME...WHILE
VERTICAL MOTION / POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN MUCH
WEAKER FURTHER S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  

ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION ALONG ENTIRE
LENGTH OF COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

NONETHELESS...ERN FRINGES OF 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND EWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  WITH 35 TO 50 KT
FLOW AT MID LEVELS FORECAST ABOVE SURFACE BOUNDARY...DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  ALTHOUGH LIMITED
BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL LIKELY EVOLVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FROM CENTRAL NEB
NEWD INTO SERN SD...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / SHEAR
COMBINATION WILL LIKELY EXIST. ALTHOUGH MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
AND DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED FURTHER N ALONG FRONT INTO
MN...WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS ONLY A MINIMAL
SEVERE THREAT. IF AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE ACROSS THIS REGION MORE
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NWD
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...SUGGESTING THAT A HAIL THREAT
WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MO
VALLEY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 09/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.