[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 180731
SWODY2
SPC AC 180726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 60 NNE ATY
35 NW BBW 25 NNE EHA 35 WNW MAF 70 S MRF ...CONT... 30 ESE IPL 25 W
IGM P38 30 WSW ELY 15 NNE U31 70 SE TVL 20 NE SAC 50 E EKA 60 N MFR
25 SSW YKM 55 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW PIE 10 NNE
DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW ILM 10 N OAJ
50 NNE EWN 25 E ECG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER
NOAM ON SUNDAY AS DEEP...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE W
CST MOVES E INTO THE GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
ELONGATES NEWD FROM TX TO ERN ONTARIO. OVER THE SOUTHEAST
...GUIDANCE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT RETROGRESSIVE
MOTION OF REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HRCN IVAN WILL
OCCUR SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY AND ALONG A MORE SLY TRACK THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WRN TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
...SLOWLY MOVING FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLNS ACROSS THE
CNTRL GRT BASIN TO THE SWRN DESERTS.

...CNTRL/NRN GRT BASIN TO NRN PLNS...
SLOWLY-MOVING ANA FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE WRN STATES THIS PERIOD.  POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ENHANCED AS EXIT REGION OF SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE
BC CST ROTATES INTO BASE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENS
MESOSCALE ASCENT ACROSS REGION.  BUT DRY NATURE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
AND POSITIVE TILT OF UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION MAY BE POST-FRONTAL.  WHATEVER ACTIVITY DOES FORM WILL
MOST LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO NARROW BANDS GIVEN 40+ KT DEEP SWLY CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR.  ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION...
MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT S OF
THE GRT BASIN...FROM THE MEXICAN BORDER NEWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.  PWS IN AZ MAY RISE TO NEARLY 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL LIKELY
YIELD MORE ROBUST STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER
N.  SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SUSTAINED/ ORGANIZED GIVEN
PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR ON SRN FRINGE OF LARGE SCALE
TROUGH.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIST ON WRN
FRINGE OF MID/UPPER CLOUD SHIELD SHEARING NNEWD FROM HRCN
JAVIER...WHERE GREATEST SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR.  ABSENCE OF AN
IDENTIFIABLE SURFACE OR UPPER LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM PRECLUDES A
CATEGORICAL SEVERE OUTLOOK ATTM...BUT PARTS OF AZ MAY REQUIRE
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS.

...ND/NW MN...
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER ND/NW
MN AS LLJ STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH.  LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..CORFIDI.. 09/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.