[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 171722
SWODY2
SPC AC 171718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 30 SSE VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE OAJ 20 WNW GSB
40 E DAN 10 SE SHD 35 SSE CXY 20 SSE EWR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CZZ 25 NNW EDW
40 S U31 20 SE PIH 20 ESE LND 30 E GJT 20 NE GUP 55 NNE SAD 65 E
DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE OMA 25 NE DSM
35 W UIN 30 W TBN 10 NNE CNU 15 W TOP 60 NE OMA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
TWO MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST WITH REGARD TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST
THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF IVAN AS WELL AS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS.

REMNANTS OF IVAN -- FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER SERN VA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.  MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN / DIG SEWD...ACCOMPANIED BY BROAD 50 TO 70 KT SWLY JET.

...MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS SERN VA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MAIN AXIS
OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / SHEAR ON ERN FLANK OF STORM SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE BY 18/12Z.  THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE DAY -- PARTICULARLY
N OF THE CENTER...ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY HAVE
ENDED PRIOR TO THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST / GREAT BASIN...
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST /
GREAT BASIN THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING WRN U.S. TROUGH --
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS NV / UT.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...FAVORABLY STRONG /
VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS ANTICIPATED -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN NV / UT.  ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO DEGREE
OF AFTERNOON AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM...AREA MAY WARRANT AN UPGRADE IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..GOSS.. 09/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.