[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 181733
SWODY2
SPC AC 181729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 25 NNE RWF
BBW 25 NNE LBL 40 NW BGS 70 S MRF ...CONT... 30 ESE IPL 20 NNW EED
50 NE DRA 50 ESE TPH 20 NE SAC 65 S EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW PIE 30 N MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW ILM 10 N OAJ
50 NNE EWN 25 E ECG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE LARGE / HIGH-AMPLITUDE
TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM ND SWWD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING.

...PARTS OF AZ / UT INTO WY / CO / THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  

DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP /
INCREASE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT /
TROUGH...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD IN DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH.  THOUGH MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO EXIST.  GREATEST THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS UT
AND VICINITY INVOF ENTRANCE REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK FORECAST
TO ROUND THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND IMPINGE ON THIS AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 

...NRN PLAINS SWWD INTO NERN CO...
ALTHOUGH DRY / DEEP / CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG / IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CAP AND
ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY
EVENING.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...BROAD ZONE OF ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  ALONG WITH A THREAT
FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS...DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS.

AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS / WRN MN...A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP ACROSS / SPREAD EWD INTO THIS AREA MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 09/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.