[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 150727
SWODY2
SPC AC 150722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
GPT LUL 10 NW HSV CHA AHN MCN 10 N AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RWL FCL TAD CVS ROW
ONM GNT FMN U17 U24 SLC RKS RWL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CMX 25 N EAU
25 WSW STC 25 N JMS 70 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW GLS LFK TXK UNO
DNV JXN 60 SE OSC ...CONT... EFK EEN JFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
REGION...

...MS/AL/GA...
ACCORDING TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE...HURRICANE IVAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL
THURSDAY MORNING NEAR MOB.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AL.  VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE
SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF EYE...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF ISOLATED TROPICAL TORNADOES
 ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN MS...MUCH OF AL...AND WESTERN GA ON
THURSDAY.

...OH/PA/NY...
STRONG...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO QUEBEC ON DAY2.  THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS OH AND INTO WESTERN NY/PA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS BOTH SUGGEST A THREAT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION...IF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
BELOW 1000 J/KG.  WILL OUTLOOK ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THIS
REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION.

..HART.. 09/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.