[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 141735
SWODY2
SPC AC 141731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE
MOB MOB 45 SE MEI TOI 25 ENE MAI 25 S TLH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC
MBS LAN LAF DNV CMI DEC UIN 25 ESE OTM CID MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW HUM HEZ 60 NE
PBF JBR CGI MDH 20 SE BLV 60 ESE VIH UNO 45 NW TXK ACT DRT 40 ESE
P07 35 E FST MAF P28 HUT 85 N CMX ...CONT... 35 ENE TOL FDY SDF BWG
BNA 55 NNE HSV CHA TRI BKW ELM BGM 30 SW MSV DOV WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MI/IL AND ERN IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE AND SRN
AL...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM PATTERN IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY
THROUGHOUT PERIOD...EVOLVING TOWARD REGIME OF ZONAL TO WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM PACIFIC NW TO GREAT LAKES.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN ROCKIES -- IS
EXPECTED TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DAY-1...THEN EJECT
NEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND LS/UPPER MI DAY-2.  BY BEGINNING OF
PERIOD THIS WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS INVOF WRN IA -- ALONG NE-SW
ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE. COLD FRONT THEN SHOULD SWEEP SEWD ACROSS SRN
HIGH PLAINS AND MUCH OF MO/OK...WHILE MOVING EWD OVER MOST OF MI.

...GREAT LAKES...
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF FRONTAL
ZONE MOVING EWD ACROSS AREA...WITH DAMAGING WIND MAIN
THREAT...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. 
KINEMATIC FIELDS AND FRONTAL FORCING FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SQUALL
LINE WITH LEWP/BOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.  PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES
INVOLVE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF MCS WHICH MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING
OF PERIOD OVER PORTIONS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...MOVING NEWD TOWARD
LS AND/OR NRN LM AREA. THIS COULD STABILIZE PORTIONS OF WI BUT ALSO
PRODUCE BOUNDARIES ACTING AS FOCI FOR LATER ACTIVITY.  SFC DEW
POINTS MID 50S TO MID 60S F SHOULD OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO YIELD MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG BY MIDAFTERNOON...IN ENVIRONMENT OF
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOWS AND AROUND 20-35 KT 0-6 KM
SHEARS.  ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND TOTAL BUOYANCY SHOULD
GENERALLY INCREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT AHEAD OF FRONTAL
ZONE...ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES LESSEN BECAUSE OF WEAKENING OF
BOTH DEEP-LAYER WIND/SHEAR FIELDS AND OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.

...E-CENTRAL GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
NEAR END OF PERIOD...CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN MAY STRIKE GULF COAST
INVOF MS/AL BORDER...HOWEVER ITS OUTER BANDS AND WIND FIELDS WILL
AFFECT BROAD ADJOINING AREA OF COAST FOR MUCH OF LATTER HALF OF
PERIOD...BASED ON LATEST NHC TRACK/WIND FIELD FCSTS.  GREATEST
TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE IN RIGHT-FRONT/NERN QUADRANT OF
NWD-MOVING MATURE HURRICANE -- WHICH IS DOWNSHEAR WITH RESPECT TO
DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS COMPARED TO NHC PROJECTED SYSTEM TRACK. 
WITHIN THAT SECTOR...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES -- I.E. SUBTLE POCKETS OF
DIFFERENTIAL DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARIES
NEAR SYSTEM PERIPHERY -- COULD BE IMPORTANT FACTOR IN CONCENTRATING
TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO BE MORE PRECISE THEN
PRESENT PROBABILITIES.

..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.