[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 151720
SWODY2
SPC AC 151716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
PNS 45 NNE MOB 30 ENE MEI 40 N TCL HSV CHA AHN MCN 20 SE AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FCL DEN COS PUB TAD
TCC 50 SW CVS ROW ALM TCS GNT CEZ GJT CAG FCL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CMX 30 NW RHI
50 ENE MSP AXN JMS 90 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BVE BTR HEZ GLH
MEM 30 E JBR UNO TBN 40 NE COU 55 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK LEB BAF BDR JFK
NEL DOV BWI EKN CRW 30 E 5I3 35 SW PSK 30 ESE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS AL...GA...FL
PANHANDLE...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER CONUS IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
-- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MID MO VALLEY REGION
-- AND BY HURRICANE IVAN IN N-CENTRAL GULF.  UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH
SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN ONT AND AWAY FROM GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING FCST PERIOD...AS NRN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN ITS
WAKE FROM PACIFIC NW TO GREAT LAKES.  ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS ANALYZED
OVER SRN MN ATTM...AND ALSO WILL EJECT NEWD OVER ONT...BECOMING
OCCLUDED AND VERTICALLY STACKED WITH UPPER SYSTEM.  MEANWHILE SFC
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION...LOSING
DEFINITION AS UPPER SUPPORT EJECTS AWAY AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
WEAKENS ON BOTH SIDES. FRONTOLYSIS ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER S AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW RESPONDS TO INLAND PENETRATION OF IVAN.

...SERN CONUS...
EYE OF IVAN IS FCST TO STRIKE INVOF MOB BAY NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE
BEGINNING OF PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FROM NHC.  THIS
SYSTEM IS ALSO FCST TO REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE WIND
ENVELOPE.  AS SUCH EXPECT LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
MINI-SUPERCELLS TO SPREAD A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE FROM CENTER OVER
FAVORED SECTOR -- WHICH IN THIS CASE WOULD BE NERN SEMICIRCLE GIVEN
SYSTEM-RELATIVE AMBIENT SHEARS.  EVEN AS SFC CIRCULATION BEGINS TO
WEAKEN...LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS ABOVE SFC WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY INTENSE
 -- MAINTAINING AND IN SOME CASES INCREASING NET VERTICAL SHEAR
THROUGHOUT PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ANY TIME THROUGH
DAY-2...THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL MAX IN THEIR OCCURRENCE...ESPECIALLY
IN OUTER BANDS WHERE DISTINCT CONVERGENCE MAXIMA CAN DEVELOP.  ANY
SUBTLE MESOSCALE AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL/DIABATIC HEATING WOULD BOTH
ENHANCE CAPE AND INTRODUCE SOME BAROCLINICITY...ENHANCING STORM
ROTATION AND TORNADO POTENTIAL IN MORE PRECISE CORRIDORS THAN CAN BE
RESOLVED THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

...NERN CONUS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PERSISTENCE OF NE-SW ORIENTED CONVECTIVE
BAND ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY PERIOD...AND
PERHAPS ADDITIONAL ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  DIURNAL HEATING AND 60S F SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD OVERCOME
WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG...AMIDST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. 
NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE WEAKENING OF BOTH LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING
AND MIDLEVEL LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THIS AREA...AS WELL AS
WEAK-MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEARS OF AROUND 25 KT.  A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO COMPEL CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.