[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 140720
SWODY2
SPC AC 140716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
HUM MCB TCL AUO ABY 30 SE TLH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN 10
NE GRR 35 S MKE LNR RHI 30 SE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LCH GLH LIT
MLC END SLN OMA FSD BRD 30 NNW ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E TOL 10 SSW MIE
SDF JKL HKY GSO SHD 10 SSW AOO ELM MSV 25 NE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WI/MI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...

...WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...AND INTO THE
PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY.  ETA/GFS GUIDANCE SHOW A RATHER DEEP
SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM IA INTO LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
WI/MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
NOT BE VERY STEEP.  AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1000
J/KG.  STRONG UPPER FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT APPEAR
LIKELY TO ORGANIZE A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE OVER EASTERN WI/WESTERN
MI.  DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. 

FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN WI INTO MO...UPPER
FORCING WILL BE WEAKER.  NEVERTHELESS...MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THIS REGION.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE NEAR MOB WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
GIVEN THE SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY EXTEND INLAND
INTO CENTRAL AL OVERNIGHT.

..HART.. 09/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.