[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 131733
SWODY2
SPC AC 131729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OFK
MKT EAU VOK LNR LWD FNB BIE 30 WSW OLU OFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MHN
LBF MCK 45 NNW GLD AKO 35 E FCL 35 WSW BFF CDR 50 NW MHN MHN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE APN MKE RFD
MLI IRK MKC 40 S RSL 45 NNE LAA LIC DEN FCL CYS 45 NNW BFF 60 WNW
CDR WRL JAC 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 50 N 63S ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN P24
BIS ABR ATY AXN HIB 45 N ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW HUM HUM MSY 65
SSW SEM TOI AUO 35 NW RMG CSV 45 NW TRI DAN 30 NE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DRT TPL 60 SW
TYR LFK BPT 30 E GLS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB TO WRN WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD BELT OF
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND W-CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH.  ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CURRENT POSITION OVER ERN WA/ID THROUGH
BASE OF MEAN TROUGH EARLY IN PERIOD...THEN DEAMPLIFYING AND EJECTING
NEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AS UPSTREAM PERTURBATION DIGS SEWD TOWARD WY.
 MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW PRESENTLY INDICATED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER TN VALLEY REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ALONG WRN
EDGE OF APPALACHIANS INTO WRN NY DAY-2.  AT SFC -- DIFFUSE
ASSORTMENT OF BOUNDARIES NOW ANALYZED ACROSS NRN PLAINS MASKS A
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE THAT SHOULD SHARPEN IN DEFINITION WITH
TIME...EXTENDING FROM SERN MN ACROSS SERN NEB THEN WWD INTO NERN CO
BY 15/00Z.  DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM ERN CO ACROSS WRN TX
PANHANDLE TO LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION...REMAINING CAPPED.

MEANWHILE IVAN -- CURRENTLY CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OVER NW CARIBBEAN
-- IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE FACTOR IN GULF COAST TORNADO POTENTIAL
UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY DAY 3 BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE FROM NHC
REGARDING WIND DISTRIBUTION AND FCST TRACK.

...ERN NE ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INVOF SFC
FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN NEB NEWD ACROSS WRN WI.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR. 
AMBIENT SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S F ARE EXPECTED AT BEGINNING
OF PERIOD...HOWEVER DIURNAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE PROCESSES SHOULD
BOOST SFC DEW POINTS INTO MID-UPPER 60S ONCE AGAIN OVER SOME
PORTIONS MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS IA...IN SHALLOW NEAR-SFC LAYER.  THIS
PLUS DIURNAL HEATING WILL BOOST MLCAPES TO 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WEAKENING CAP IN FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE. 
LARGE/LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 35-45 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
INDICATE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...WITH MIDLEVEL AND MEAN FLOW
VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FORCING BOUNDARY...STORMS MAY
LINE OUT RATHER QUICKLY.  INCREASINGLY MOIST/50-60 KT SWLY LLJ MAY
SUPPORT MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS IA/WI AFTER DARK.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WRN PORTIONS
OUTLOOK AREA MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL MAIN THREAT AND
DAMAGING WIND ALSO POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO
LATE EVENING ACROSS WRN NEB...PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. 
ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMPONENT SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND SFC FRONT
ACROSS THIS AREA...ADVECTING MOISTURE UPSLOPE AND COMBINING WITH
INSOLATION TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS FAVORABLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT DAY ACROSS PORTIONS
WRN NEB...NERN CO AND PERHAPS EXTREME SERN WY AS UPPER TROUGH
APCHS...BECOMING SUITABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS
50-70 KT PROGGED NEB PANHANDLE/NERN CO.  8-9 DEG C MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 50S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE
500-1000 J/KG.

..EDWARDS.. 09/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.