[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 130719
SWODY2
SPC AC 130715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LWD
CNK EAR YKN 10 WSW EAU VOK LNR LWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD CLL CBM HSV
SDF JXN GRR 35 S MKE UIN OJC GCK 40 NE LAA DEN LAR 50 ESE DGW 60 NE
DGW WRL JAC 60 SSW 27U S80 30 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N OLF DIK 50 NE
MBG FAR 20 W INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW JHW DUJ EKN
TRI 10 NW SPA 10 SE SOP 25 ESE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN NEB ACROSS IA INTO
WESTERN WI...

...MIDWEST STATES...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WITH MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM
UPPER MI/WI INTO WESTERN KS.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE REINFORCED OVER
MN/IA BY OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT DAY1 CONVECTION.  STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF FRONT FROM EASTERN KS INTO
SOUTHERN WI.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
TO SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS...AND PERHAPS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN WI DURING THE EVENING.

...WESTERN KS/NEB/SD...
ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT FROM
EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN KS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB/SD. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR OVER THIS REGION...WHERE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED.  STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COLD
 TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND APPROACH OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO.  THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
ALONG THE THETA-E AXIS...WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED HAIL OR
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.  WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DUE TO WEAK FORECAST INSTABILITY. 
HOWEVER...THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER
UPDATES IF GREATER INSTABILITY APPEARS MORE LIKELY.

..HART.. 09/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.