[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 121713
SWODY2
SPC AC 121709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
ELO 35 SE MSP 30 ENE OMA 10 S EAR 60 E ANW ATY 20 WNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 10 WNW VOK
15 E LWD 30 NNW GAG 30 N ROW 35 SE DMN ...CONT... 40 WSW FHU 35 W
SVC 15 WSW ABQ 50 ENE DRO 20 SSE GJT 15 S BYI 65 ESE BNO RDM 35 S
AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PSX 15 W LCH
50 NNW PNS 15 NNE 0A8 10 WNW TUP 35 SSW HUF 35 W LUK 45 E CRW 15 E
BLF 20 WSW GSP CAE 20 SSE EWN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE PAC NW TODAY WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD INTO
THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...LOCATED OVER
NCNTRL SD EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WILL MOVE NEWD INTO NWRN ONTARIO BY
MONDAY NIGHT.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AND SWEEP SEWD
INTO NWRN WI-IA-KS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. 

...ERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VLY...
INCREASING SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 60S DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY MONDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING.  CINH IS APT TO REMAIN
RATHER STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR.  BUT...AS STRONGER H5 HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH ACCELERATE EWD...TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS CINH IS ERASED.
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
 HOWEVER...GIVEN 2-6KM SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
INITIATING BOUNDARY AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...
RAPID EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE LIKELY.  RISKS OF
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...
ESPECIALLY FROM EXTREME NERN NEB INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SRN
END OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB AND IA WHERE 50 KT SLY LLJ BLOWS
NORMAL TO THE FRONT. THUS...WHILE ACTIVITY MOVING EWD INTO THE UPPER
MS VLY LIKELY WEAKENS WITH TIME OWING TO DIURNAL COOLING...ISOLD
LARGE HAIL MAY CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT MOST OF THE NIGHT FARTHER SW
WHERE MUCAPES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1200 J/KG.

..RACY.. 09/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.