[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 111716
SWODY2
SPC AC 111712

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 25 NE Y22 40
WSW RAP 15 WSW DEN 40 SSE SAF 20 NNE TCS 55 WNW SAD 30 NW BLH 30 E
DRA 30 WSW U24 45 WSW MLD 30 NW WMC 50 N LMT 45 NE RDM 55 ESE EPH 40
NNE FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE HUL 35 W AUG 15
SSW SYR 20 WNW JHW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS 30 SSE TXK
35 SW ARG 35 SSW SDF 30 N SSU 15 S CHO 25 SSE DAN 15 SSE CLT 45 N
CAE 35 ENE FLO 20 SE EWN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN-TIER OF
THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG JET STREAKS
CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW COAST...WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
BY EARLY MONDAY.  BOTH THE GFS/ETA HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...WITH THE
GFS THE FASTEST.  

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL REMAIN OVER SD...SITUATED ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN ROCKIES.  ERN
PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY 
INTO ONTARIO WHILE A NEW FRONT DROPS SEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST HAS THE CENTER OF
HRCN IVAN MOVING TO THE WRN TIP OF CUBA BY 12Z MONDAY...VERY LATE IN
THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

...SWRN FL...
SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN IVAN MAY BRUSH THE SWRN COAST
OF FL VERY LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD...09-12Z MONDAY.  INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF IVAN WILL LIKELY GIVE RISE TO ISOLD
TORNADO/WATERSPOUT RISKS IN SWRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS.  MAIN IMPACT
WILL OCCUR BEYOND THE DAY 2 PERIOD...HOWEVER.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
GIVEN THE TRENDS OF A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT AND DEEPER CHARACTER
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAST FEW ETA/GFS MODEL RUNS
AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE 09Z SREF...PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER APPEAR MINIMAL OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  12Z GFS IS THE
OUTLIER AS IT SUGGESTS A FASTER MOVEMENT OVER THE ETA/ETAKF.  BEST
CASE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP VERY LATE
IN THE PERIOD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THAT MAY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.  EVEN THEN...MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND RISKS OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
SUB-5 PERCENT PROBABILITY RANGE.

..RACY.. 09/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.