[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 080630
SWODY2
SPC AC 080626

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CTY AYS 15 SW
CAE 35 SSW ROA 25 NE CRW 25 NNE ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE INL 45 S FAR
30 SE MBG 35 ESE REJ 55 ESE MLS 35 NNW BIL 35 SE MQM 30 NE BOI 35 N
63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CAG 45 E DRO
15 SE FLG 35 W BLH 10 N EDW 30 NNW BIH 35 WNW ELY 50 N PUC 25 WSW
CAG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NRN U.S. WITH STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE REMNANTS OF FRANCES PHASES WITH NRN STREAM
AND LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  IN
ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ROTATE AROUND SRN ROCKIES
ANTICYCLONE AND SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SRN GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY.

...NORTHEAST...
THOUGH ETA AND GFS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW
PLACEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH MAINTAIN STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND EAST OF THE LOW
TRACK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  DESPITE INCREASING SURFACE
DEW POINTS...DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST AT BEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITHIN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MLCAPES BELOW 500 J/KG.  HOWEVER...
PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 30+ KT OF O-1 KM SHEAR/
WITHIN WARM SECTOR CONTAINING VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LOW
LCLS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAN NOT BE
DISCOUNTED DESPITE GENERAL WEAKENING OF FRANCES.  WILL KEEP LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES FORECAST FOR NOW...THOUGH SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...NRN PLAINS...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO ND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SCARCE. SHOULD SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OCCUR
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL
OPT TO ONLY FORECAST LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..EVANS.. 09/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.