[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 081730
SWODY2
SPC AC 081726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED SEP 08 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W AQQ 45 NNW AYS
45 WSW SOP 20 SSE LYH 30 WNW AOO 30 N JHW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE DRO 55 ENE SOW
10 N PHX YUM 25 NNW RAL 50 NW NID 35 NNE TPH 45 NNE GJT 40 ENE DRO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W IWD 20 N MKT 20
NNE 9V9 40 NE 81V 50 ESE BIL 55 NNE SUN 35 N BOI 10 ENE PDT 35 NNE
63S.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN U.S...

REMNANT OF FRANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT
MOVES NNEWD INTO THE NERN U.S. BY EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG KINEMATIC
AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST E OF THE CENTER WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO BY MID-DAY TOMORROW. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NWD DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR /0-1 KM 30 KT/ WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN
THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERAL BANDS OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD OVER THE NERN U.S. AND
NEW ENGLAND...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NWD WITH
TIME. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND NEWD MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL EXIST IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
CAN OCCUR. HOWEVER...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. UNLIKE TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL
BE FROM COOLER WATERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NE U.S. COAST. THIS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SUGGEST
INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY
BE NEEDED IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS IF IT BECOMES APPARENT MORE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.


...ERN MT AND ND...

SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN WLY FLOW REGIME WILL ADVANCE EWD
THROUGH ERN MT AND ND DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 50
EXPECTED. PLUME OF WARM AIR IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER WILL ADVECT EWD
OVER THE MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY STRONG
CAP MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING...AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSES
ADVANCING EWD MAY WEAKEN CAP AND PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SURFACE-6 KM SHEAR OF
35 TO 40 KT WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF ERN MT INTO ND.
OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MN WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM COVERAGE AND INITIATION...WILL KEEP
ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 09/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.