[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 070629
SWODY2
SPC AC 070626

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW AQQ 45 SW MCN
25 ENE ATL 35 W CHA 50 SW LEX 25 WNW CMH 65 WNW ERI ...CONT... 50
NNW BML 30 WSW BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW SUX 25 NNE ANW
65 N PHP 25 WSW BIS 50 SSW GFK 20 SE AXN FRM 20 WNW SUX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY REMNANTS OF FRANCES AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG AND JUST WEST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  ELSEWHERE...LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO INHIBIT MUCH MOIST CONVECTION. AN
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL WAA MAY
SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...INCLUDING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

...SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...
GFS HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS IN
FORECASTING FRANCES IN THE 36-60 HR TIME FRAME...AND IS THE CLOSEST
TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BY NHC/HPC.  EXPECT LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN ENHANCED EAST OF REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER WHERE GFS
MAINTAINS 30-45 KT SLY H85 WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  GIVEN PRESENCE
OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ATTM...EXPECT LOWER TO MID
70F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL EASILY BE CARRIED NWD INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC AS WINDS BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION.  THUS...COMBINATION
OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.  IF
SUFFICIENT CLEARING/HEATING CAN OVERSPREAD THIS MOISTENING WARM
SECTOR...AN INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR.  WILL FORECAST
LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM...THOUGH UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..EVANS.. 09/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.