[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 060635
SWODY2
SPC AC 060631

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W COT 30 SSE AUS
20 SSW TXK 40 ESE POF 30 NW DAY 75 E APN ...CONT... 25 ENE MSS 20 NE
ALB 20 SSE BOS ...CONT... 35 S TLH 15 NNE CEW 30 SSW SEM 35 NNE TCL
15 NNW MSL 40 NNW TUP 20 NE GLH 35 NNE ESF 30 SSE LCH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COOL/DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY BETWEEN THE ROCKIES AND APPALACHIANS...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...REMNANTS OF
FRANCES WILL BE LIFTING NNEWD INTO OR JUST WEST OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE PERIOD.

...SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC...
THOUGH FRANCES WILL HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THIS REGION TUESDAY.  THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND PRESENCE OF A VERY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCL HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED ATTM
EVEN AS FAR EAST AS THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST.  WILL OPT TO FORECAST
ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM ...FOCUSING ON AN AREA EAST AND NORTH OF
CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. 
HOWEVER...UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS
OVER PORTIONS OF THIS REGION.

...ERN GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...
THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AREA OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ATTM.  DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD SMALL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

..EVANS.. 09/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.