[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 041829
SWODY2
SPC AC 041825

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
AQQ 30 E TLH 30 SSW AYS 20 S SSI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OKC 45
NNE CSM 35 SW P28 40 SSW RSL 20 ESE GRI 25 NE FSD 40 N RWF 25 ESE
STC 25 W EAU LSE 40 W DBQ 35 SW IRK 20 NNW JLN 30 ENE TUL 50 SSW TUL
OKC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 10 WNW MGM
50 NW AND 10 SE DAN 10 E ORF ...CONT... 25 ESE APN 35 SSE SBN 35 NNW
DYR 50 SSW GLH 15 S 7R4 ...CONT... 70 SE YUM 50 SSE PHX 35 NE DMN 15
WNW CNM 35 NNW MAF 50 S CDS 30 NW LTS 40 W GAG 45 ESE TAD PUB 20 NNE
FCL 45 W BFF 60 S PHP 35 N 9V9 45 SSE FAR 40 W INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

CORRECTED FOR 5 % LINE ON PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...FL...
HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE IN CNTRL FL TONIGHT
AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AFFECT MUCH OF FL WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WITH
EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THE RAINBANDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY
ACROSS FL SHOW LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO
POTENTIAL. TORNADOES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
CENTER AND/OR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS INTO THE HURRICANE'S CIRCULATION. THE TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NWWD EVENTUALLY MOVING JUST OFFSHORE
IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.

...GREAT PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
A WRN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD TONIGHT AND
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO ERN CO IN THE MORNING...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MTNS MOVING EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WRN US
TROUGH...WILL SLIDE EWD INTO WRN IA...ERN NEB AND CNTRL KS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MID TO UPPER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STRONG
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH GRADUAL TURNING ABOVE 850 MB....RESULTING IN
ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE STRENGTH
OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEPTH OF THE UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SUGGEST THE CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE WITH
AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL. THE LINE SHOULD
CONTINUE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS REACHING SRN MN...CNTRL IA
AND ERN KS BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES OVERTURNED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.

..BROYLES.. 09/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.