[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 021725
SWODY2
SPC AC 021722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2004

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ELO 50 NW HIB
55 E FAR ATY 25 NNE BUB 10 WSW LBF 10 S SNY 30 E FCL 40 SSW DEN 35
NW LVS 45 SE ELP ...CONT... 80 S GBN 35 WNW PHX 50 ENE IGM 10 SSE
SGU 45 S ENV 15 WSW BYI 30 S S80 70 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE DRT 10 WNW ACT
25 N TXK 45 SSW UNO 15 SSW STL 30 W PIA 30 SW MKE 35 NE MKG 35 SE
OSC ...CONT... 30 WSW BUF 15 NE JHW 30 S JHW 30 SSW FKL 30 NE HTS 30
NNE TYS 15 WNW ATL 40 SSE ATL 35 E MCN 10 SSE AGS GSO 15 ENE CHO 20
NW DCA 20 WSW ILG 20 ENE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EPM BML MSS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DAKOTAS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WRN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD WITH
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

AT THE SFC...A LOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NCNTRL ND WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. A GRADUAL MOISTENING
IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND SPREADS SWD
INTO NRN SD. SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS. AND CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO
THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT...STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -12C AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL AND MARGINAL DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE SFC
TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...GRADUALLY SPREADING NEWD IN THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DURING THE EVENING.

...ERN FL...
HURRICANE FRANCES IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING SAN SALVADOR IN THE
BAHAMAS. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT WEST NORTHWESTWARD REACHING THE
SE TO ECNTRL FL COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HURRICANE
APPROACHES FL FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FAR OUTER BANDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INLAND. A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
THE STRONGER BANDS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES THAT SHOULD KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT MINIMAL.

..BROYLES.. 09/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.